Water, Food, Stability: Scarcity's Global Geopolitical Ripple

Global GeopoliticsClimate WatchTechnology & Industry

15 Mar

15th March, 2024

Considering the intertwined nature of water scarcity in critical regions such as China, India, and the Mekong Delta, alongside the mounting pressures on global food security, how might the evolving landscape of international water-sharing agreements and national strategies for securing food supplies shape the future geopolitical arena? This inquiry seeks to explore the potential for conflicts arising from resource scarcity, the measures countries are adopting to mitigate the risks to food and water availability, and the broader, long-term geopolitical consequences of these insecurities. Additionally, it aims to understand how nations are strategically preparing to address these challenges, balancing between cooperation and competition, to ensure stability and prevent exacerbation of scarcity-related tensions.

First Layer

The evolving dynamics of international water-sharing agreements and national strategies for securing food supplies, set against the backdrop of escalating resource scarcity, present a pivotal axis around which the future geopolitical arena is likely to pivot. This complex interplay of transboundary water management, agricultural innovation, and the sustainable harnessing of scarce resources, sits at the core of potential future conflicts as well as opportunities for unprecedented cooperation among nations.

Comprehensive Assessment of Global Hotspots

Focusing on regions most at risk, such as the Mekong Delta, the analysis reveals that the historical and ongoing disputes over water rights have not only strained bilateral relations but also threaten regional stability. For instance, the construction of upstream dams by China has raised alarms among downstream nations (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand) over reduced water flows, impacting agriculture and fisheries. The escalating situation illustrates how water scarcity could be a fulcrum for geopolitical instability, urging a recomposition of existing agreements to incorporate equitable water-sharing principles and joint management frameworks that can withstand future climatic aberrations.

Evaluation of Existing and Emerging International Water-sharing Agreements

By critically evaluating existing agreements like the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan, the analysis highlights inherent deficiencies such as the lack of climate change adaptation mechanisms and dispute resolution frameworks. The projected strains on these agreements due to population growth and increased agricultural demands necessitate adaptive strategies. For example, incorporating real-time data sharing on water flows and leveraging satellite technology for equitable water distribution could mitigate potential conflicts.

Examination of National Strategies

The resilience of national strategies is exemplified by Israel's deployment of advanced desalination technology, which has not only ensured water security but also transformed the nation into a water surplus entity. This strategic pivot towards technological solutions embodies a crucial model for nations grappling with water scarcity. Similarly, India's emphasis on micro-irrigation practices to enhance water use efficiency amidst declining groundwater levels showcases an adaptive national strategy deserving of emulation.

Analysis of Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics

As water scarcity becomes more pronounced, potential flashpoints for conflict could emerge over disputed water resources, for instance, in the Nile Basin. Conversely, the shared challenge of water scarcity also opens avenues for cooperation, as seen in the Senegal River Basin Development Organization, which has fostered collaborative water management among member countries. This dichotomy underscores the need for robust mechanisms to identify and diffuse potential conflicts while enhancing platforms for cooperation.

Strategic Forecasting and Scenario Development

Predicting a range of outcomes from resource scarcity-induced conflicts to cooperative water-sharing paradigms necessitates innovative thinking. For instance, leveraging artificial intelligence for predictive analysis of water usage patterns could inform more equitable sharing models. Furthermore, initiating cross-border environmental projects could serve as trust-building measures, laying the groundwork for more collaborative resource management efforts.

Recommendations for Multilateral Actions and Policy Interventions

A proposition for establishing a Global Water Stability Fund, seeded by contributions from multinational entities, could finance infrastructure projects aimed at enhancing water efficiency and ensuring equitable distribution. Such a fund, managed transparently through a multilateral framework, could serve as a linchpin for fostering cooperation and ensuring that critical water management projects receive necessary funding, irrespective of geopolitical considerations.

Impact Evaluation and Metrics for Success

The success of proposed interventions could be measured through a composite index comprising factors such as reduction in conflict instances over water, improvement in water quality and availability across borders, and the successful implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. Regularly assessing progress against these metrics would provide tangible evidence of the effectiveness of multilateral efforts in addressing resource scarcity.

Integration of Technological and Sustainable Solutions

The adoption of advanced agricultural practices like precision farming and genetically modified crops resistant to drought conditions could significantly mitigate the impact of water scarcity on food security. Similarly, investments in renewable energy-powered desalination plants could offer a sustainable solution to water scarcity, augmenting freshwater supplies without exacerbating carbon emissions.

Long-term Projections and Sustainable Policy Formulation

Envisioning a future where geopolitical stability is intimately linked with effective management of scarce resources requires a holistic policy framework. This framework should prioritize investments in water and food security technologies, promote regional water-sharing accords adherent to principles of equity and sustainability, and incentivize agricultural practices that maximize efficiency without compromising ecological balance.

Stakeholder Analysis and Engagement Strategies

Engaging diverse stakeholders – from local communities to international donors – in dialogue and partnership is imperative. Cultivating a shared understanding of water scarcity as a common challenge could foster collaborative approaches to resource management. Incorporating traditional knowledge alongside scientific innovations in water conservation might enhance the acceptability and effectiveness of proposed solutions, ensuring all voices are heard and integrated into a cohesive strategy.

In sum, navigating the labyrinthine challenges posed by water scarcity and food security in the geopolitical arena demands an interdisciplinary approach, one that balances immediate needs with long-term sustainability, fosters cooperation over competition, and leans heavily on innovation and equitable resource management to forge a path towards stability and resilience.

Second Layer

Addressing the intricate challenges presented by resource scarcity, particularly focusing on water crises and food security, requires an advanced synthesis of inter-disciplinary insights and tangible, actionable strategies. This refined analysis delves deeper into the realms of technological adaptations, geopolitical maneuverings, and multifaceted solutions to navigate the precarious future shaped by these existential threats.

Technical Execution and Limitations of Water Management Systems

Technological innovations such as desalination and precision agriculture offer a beacon of hope but come with their own set of complexities. Desalination, for instance, while promising in augmenting water supplies, faces hurdles in the forms of high energy consumption and environmental brine disposal challenges. A case in point is the Carlsbad Desalination Plant in California, which operates as the largest desalination facility in the Western Hemisphere. While it provides a critical water supply, its operations underscore the balancing act required between technological benefit and environmental stewardship, with energy consumption equating to approximately 14,000 homes' electricity usage annually, highlighting the necessity for renewable energy integration in such technologies.

Socio-Political Frictions and Internal Dynamics

Internal socio-political frictions significantly impact nations' capacities to engage in or renegotiate water-sharing agreements. In the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), internal political dynamics within Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia influence the stances and negotiation flexibility of these states. Egypt's concern over water scarcity being a threat to its national security juxtaposes Ethiopia's stance on developmental rights, evidencing how internal politico-economic agendas drive external geopolitical strategies.

Costs, Energy Requirements, and Environmental Impacts of Technological Solutions

Analyzing the practicality of agricultural tech advancements, precision agriculture, though effective in optimizing resource usage, demands substantial initial investment and technical skill sets, potentially alienating smallholder farmers. This disparity illustrates the need for policy frameworks that not only encourage tech adoption but also ensure equitable access through financial and educational support mechanisms, thereby aligning technological advancements with socio-economic attainability.

Infrastructure and Technological Requisites for Sustainable Solutions

NEWater's success in Singapore, converting treated wastewater to potable standards, showcases an exemplary model of technological adaptation in water-scarce environments. However, replicating this model necessitates bespoke adaptation to local contexts – including economic, social, and governance parameters. Countries considering similar initiatives must evaluate technological transferability against their unique backdrop, crafting policies that support infrastructural development and public engagement in equal measure.

Engagement with Socio-economic Factors

The direct and indirect socio-economic impacts of altering water and food security dynamics necessitate a closer examination. For communities relying on the Mekong River, upstream dam constructions not only threaten livelihoods but also cultural and social fabrics, exemplified by the diminished fish stocks vital for local diets and economies. Thus, solutions must encompass economic compensatory mechanisms and cultural preservation strategies, ensuring a holistic approach to mitigating adverse impacts.

International Cooperation and Case Studies

The cooperative management of the Danube River through the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) provides a constructive blueprint for transboundary water cooperation. The ICPDR's success lies in its inclusive governance model, integrating 14 co-riparian states and the European Union, underpinning the importance of stakeholder engagement and shared management in achieving sustainable river basin management. This example underlines the potential for structured cooperation to transcend geopolitical frictions, fostering stability through shared ecological stewardship.

Innovative Diplomatic Strategies and Non-state Actors

Leveraging cultural or historical ties presents an underexplored avenue for conflict resolution in water-sharing disputes. The Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan, despite longstanding tensions, remains a testament to the potential of cultural commonalities in fostering durable agreements. Additionally, the role of NGOs in advocating for equitable water distribution and sustainable practices introduces a vital dimension to the discourse, facilitating grassroots engagement and international advocacy.

Conclusion: Navigating the Future of Water Security and Food Stability

The path toward mitigating the geopolitical ramifications of water and food scarcity is laden with complex challenges requiring innovative solutions. Balancing technological advancements with socio-economic and environmental consciousness, fostering international cooperation amidst individual national interests, and incorporating a diverse array of stakeholders marks the cornerstone of a sustainable future. Through a concerted global effort, predicated on a shared vision for ecological stewardship and equitable resource distribution, the daunting challenges posed by resource scarcity can be navigated, securing a stable and prosperous geopolitical landscape for future generations.

NA Preparation

Material Facts

In addressing the question of how evolving landscapes of international water-sharing agreements and national strategies for securing food supplies shape the future geopolitical arena, the analysis must critically engage with the intricate dynamics of resource scarcity, particularly focusing on water crises and food security, and their potential to instigate or exacerbate geopolitical tensions. This requires a detailed examination of specific initiatives, technologies, and policies currently being implemented or proposed by various nations, with an emphasis on their technical specifications, projected efficacies, and strategic implications for regional and global stability.

Material Facts Analysis

High-Tech Agricultural Practices

The development and deployment of the Temasek Rice variety, which demonstrates resilience against extreme weather conditions through traits such as shortened stature, increased tolerance to submergence, drought, and fungal infestations, represent a significant advancement in agricultural biotechnology. This innovation not only exemplifies a proactive approach to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security but also poses strategic implications for countries heavily reliant on agriculture for both domestic consumption and international trade.

Advanced Water Resource Management

The Marina Barrage in Singapore showcases a multifunctional approach to water resource management, incorporating urban flood control, freshwater reservoir storage, and social recreational spaces within a singular infrastructure project. This model, completed at a cost of S$226 million and attracting 16 million visitors since its inception, emphasizes the utility of investing in comprehensive and versatile water management strategies that address both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of water security.

Economic Dynamics and Food Security

The dynamic interaction between economic factors and food security is highlighted through Indonesia's inflation experience, with a peak rate of 4.94 per cent year-on-year in July—an indication of the potential volatility in food prices due to various factors including global commodity prices, domestic agricultural yields, and government energy policies. This situation illustrates the broader vulnerabilities countries face in securing food supplies amid economic fluctuations and the strategic necessity for robust economic and agricultural policies that can absorb or mitigate these shocks.

Technological Innovation and International Cooperation

The Singapore-Australia Go-Green Co-Innovation Programme, with a funding of A$20 million (US$13.2 million), underlines the strategic move towards supporting SMEs in developing innovative green products. This initiative not only advances sustainable development goals but also represents a strategic diplomatic engagement that can strengthen bilateral relations, contribute to economic diversification, and promote technological exchange in critical sectors relevant to food and water security.

Climate Change Adaptation Measures

Adaptations to climate change, including precision irrigation systems that reduce water usage for rice cultivation from approximately 3,000 litres to just 750 litres per kilogram of rice, showcase actionable strategies nations can employ to address the dual challenges of water scarcity and agricultural efficiency. Singapore's pilot of vertical farming techniques in urban environments further exemplifies adaptable responses to limited land resources, enhancing local food production capabilities.

These material facts collectively underscore the critical nexus between technological innovation, strategic policy formulation, economic resilience, and international cooperation in addressing the challenges posed by water crises and food security to geopolitical stability. The strategic implications of these initiatives, both at a national and international level, offer potential pathways towards collaborative solutions that balance the imperative for security with the principles of equity and sustainability in resource management. This depth of analysis sets the stage for a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical ramifications of resource scarcity and the multifaceted strategies being deployed to navigate these complex challenges.

Force Catalysts

In the multi-layered mosaic of global geopolitics, with escalating resource scarcity casting long shadows over water and food security, the nuanced application of Force Catalysts—leadership, resolve, initiative, and entrepreneurship—ascends as a cornerstone of strategic maneuvering. Within this intricate tapestry, the exigency for nations to navigate the increasingly turbulent waters of international relations, particularly through the lenses of water-sharing accords and food supply safeguarding strategies amidst population surges and climatic aberrations, is palpable. These catalysts, in their expansive roles, are seminal in orienting global dynamics towards a trajectory of sustainability and equilibrium. With an enriched analytical lens, this discourse ventures into a strategic synthesis of these catalysts, charting their historical lineage, contemporary geopolitical machinations, and prophetic bearings on the epochal challenges of resource dearth.

Historical and Contemporary Leadership Dynamics in Water and Food Security

Leadership stands as a pivotal axis around which the resolution of existential threats like water and food scarcity revolves. This prism refracts a spectrum of leadership typologies from the integrative to the adversarial, each casting a distinct impact on the diplomacy and discussions encircling critical resources. An introspective examination of watershed pacts like the Indus Waters Treaty juxtaposed with more contentious frameworks reveals the granular nuances of leadership—ranging from visionary inclusivity to tactical assertiveness. These divergences illuminate the intricate dance of strategic foresight, adaptability, and influential stewardship in navigating the complex geopolitical chessboard, advocating for path-breaking resolutions to the entangled crises of water paucity and food insecurity.

Resolve's Multiplicity and its Implications on Resource Management Strategies

The fabric of resolve, woven with the threads of a nation's unyielding pursuit of strategic imperatives amidst hurdles, displays a variegated texture across the geopolitical landscape. This Force Catalyst, malleable by historical impulses, sociopolitical milieus, and economic climates, influences the implementation arc of pivotal resource conservation and agronomic sustainability measures. A granular dissection of historical and contemporary manifestations of resolve unearths the correlation between the robustness of national fortitude and the efficacious surmounting of hydrological and alimentary tribulations. Whereas nations endowed with a harmonized and resilient ethos have historically transcended adversities, those with fragmented resolve have often encountered upheavals in their resource security paradigms.

The Dialectic of Initiative in Geopolitical and Resource Innovations

Initiative, as a Force Catalyst, encapsulates the valorous strides of nations in preempting and circumventing the multifaceted challenges engendered by resource scarcity. This proactive pivot towards avant-garde technologies and methodologies underscores a strategic foresightedness that distinguishes nations on the global stage. The kaleidoscopic variance in initiative levels illuminates the disparate abilities of states in stewarding technological and procedural novelties to buffer against the shocks of dwindling water and alimentary supplies. This exploration fleshes out the asymmetries in state capacities to not only adapt to but to reinvent the contours of their engagement with the existential verities of resource scarceness.

Entrepreneurial Ventures as Catalysts for Sustainable Solutions

The mantle of entrepreneurship, particularly in its incarnation as a harbinger of technological and procedural revolutions, illuminates the pathways towards ameliorating dual crises of water deficit and food supply vulnerabilities. This spirit of innovation and adaptive reconfiguration suffuses the quest for sustainable panaceas to these intertwined challenges, drawing richly from a spectrum of economic, cultural, and socio-political ecologies. Through a panoramic scope, this discourse elucidates the myriad entrepreneurial trajectories pursued by nations, underscoring their seminal impact in engendering efficacious and resilient infrastructures poised to withstand the exigencies of resource insufficiency.

Integrating Past Insights with Prognostications for Strategic Resilience

Navigating the transition from a historical to a prognosticative vantage necessitates an informed synthesis of retrospective insights and empirical data. The strategic amalgamation of leadership, resolve, initiative, and entrepreneurship is envisaged as a linchpin in orchestrating a unified global front against the vicissitudes of water crises and food insecurity. Through an integrative protocol that weaves the threads of past experiences with contemporary intelligence and visionary innovation, the global polity is empowered to tread a path of resource stewardship marked by sustainability, stability, and collective prosperity. This anticipatory and unified approach heralds a new era of geopolitical and environmental equilibrium, safeguarding the imperative of water and food resources for posterity amidst the unfolding tableau of global tensions and climatic flux.

Constraints and Frictions

To adroitly analyze the intricate challenges of water crises and global food security and their ramifications on geopolitical stability, a precise and deeply contextual inquiry into the constraints and frictions endemic to critical regions like China, India, and the Mekong Delta is warranted. This comes alongside recognizing contemporary challenges like rapid urbanization and integrating data substantiated through quantifiable evidence. Enhancing the precision and specificity in identifying constraints and frictions, expanding the analytical depth with a focus on social and cultural nuances alongside technological realities, and weaving in evidence through case studies and example integration are essential steps forward.

Precision and Specificity in Constraints and Frictions

In addressing Epistemic Constraints, it's imperative to highlight region-specific data gaps, particularly in the Mekong Delta, where variability in monsoon patterns significantly impacts agricultural output, yet comprehensive data on seasonal water flow and sediment loads remains elusive. In the context of China and India, granularity in water scarcity measurements, detailing differences in groundwater depletion rates between urban and rural areas, is critically lacking. This specificity could guide focused interventions, from precision agriculture in India's Punjab to sustainable urban planning in China's rapidly expanding cities.

Resource Constraints are stark, with China's water resources per capita being one-third of the global average. In India, per capita availability of water has plummeted by nearly 70% since 1951, with current figures standing approximately at 1,544 cubic meters per person. Understanding the spatial distribution of these constraints helps in pinpointing areas with acute shortages, necessitating targeted responses.

For Frictions, detailing the Technical Friction involves pinpointing outdated irrigation systems in specific Indian agricultural belts, where efficiency is as low as 35-40%, compared to more modern systems achieving upwards of 90%. Environmental Friction examples include the unprecedented drought in Southwest China since early 2023, directly attributable to a delay in the monsoon season, impacting both hydroelectric power generation and agriculture.

Contextual Relevance and Analytical Depth

Addressing Urbanization, India's move towards urban mega-regions amplifies stress on already scarce water resources, affecting both food security and water availability for domestic use. Urban expansion into traditional agricultural lands around cities like Beijing has led to diminished arable land, impacting food production capabilities. The clash between urban development demands and agricultural needs underlines the urgent need for integrated urban-rural water management strategies.

Delving into Social and Cultural Constraints, the transformation of traditional water-sharing practices in the Mekong Delta due to aggressive dam construction upstream demonstrates a pressing need for culturally sensitive, transboundary water management policies that honor historical agreements and practices.

Analytical Depth is enhanced by examining historical shifts in national strategies toward water management, such as India's pivot to micro-irrigation techniques aiming to enhance water use efficiency amidst declining groundwater levels. Comparative analysis with other regions facing similar adversities, such as the Middle East's reliance on desalination and water recycling, could illuminate alternative strategies.

Evidence and Example Integration

Case Studies like Singapore's strategic national approach to achieving water self-sufficiency through the NEWater program, offer replicable models for countries wrestling with similar constraints. This turns perceived frictions into strategic opportunities, highlighting the power of technological and policy innovation in addressing water and food security challenges.

Temporal Dynamics and Probabilistic and Scenario-based Approaches

Understanding the dynamic nature of constraints and frictions necessitates a historical overview, recognizing, for example, how China's South-North Water Transfer Project, initiated decades ago, reflects evolving approaches to mitigating regional water scarcity.

Scenario Planning exercises that traverse a gamut from techno-optimistic scenarios, involving advancements in genetically modified crops resistant to aridity, to geopolitical conflict scenarios over water resources in the Himalayan watershed, would offer a spectrum of foresight invaluable for strategic planning.

Iteration and Feedback

Emphasizing the importance of an iterative approach to refining strategic responses to these challenges underscores the adaptive capacity required in the face of evolving environmental and geopolitical landscapes. Establishing feedback mechanisms, such as regional forums on transboundary water management, fosters a culture of collaboration over competition, aligning with the broader goals of stability and sustainable development in an increasingly interdependent world.

In sum, enhancing the net assessment with a granular focus on constraints and frictions, integrating contextually relevant analyses with deep dives into social and technological subtleties, and applying evidenced-based insights through comparative case studies would markedly enrich the strategic framework designed to navigate the fraught nexus of water crises and global food security in shaping future geopolitical stability.

Alliances and Laws

In addressing the question of resource scarcity and its effects on geopolitical stability, with an emphasis on water crises and food security, it's essential to delve into the multifaceted realm of international water-sharing agreements, national strategies for securing food supplies, and the overarching implications these factors have on global geopolitical stability. This analysis considers recent developments and strategic approaches adopted by various countries, highlighting potential future scenarios informed by the principles of net assessment.

Water Crisis and Geopolitical Stability

Water-Sharing Agreements

Water-sharing agreements are critical in managing transboundary water resources, especially in regions where water scarcity can lead to tensions among neighboring countries. The Mekong River Commission is an illustrative example of an effort to foster cooperation among countries in the Mekong River basin, including China, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Myanmar. However, the varying national interests and upstream developments, notably by China, pose challenges to collective water management efforts. Evolving these agreements to enhance fairness, transparency, and sustainable practices is crucial in preventing potential conflicts.

National Strategies

Countries are increasingly recognizing the importance of national strategies to address water scarcity. China's 'Sponge City' initiative, aimed at enhancing urban water absorption and reuse capabilities, and India's 'Jal Jeevan Mission', focused on providing water access to rural households, exemplify proactive government approaches to mitigating water scarcity impacts. Similarly, advanced water treatment and reuse technologies, such as Singapore's NEWater, serve as benchmarks for securing urban water supplies.

Food Security and Geopolitical Implications

Global Food Security Risks

The interplay between water scarcity and food production underscores significant risks to global food security. Countries like Indonesia have experienced inflation due to crop failures and rising food prices, highlighting the vulnerability of national economies to food production shocks. The global nature of food supply chains means that localized disruptions can have widespread implications, potentially leading to geopolitical tensions, especially in regions heavily dependent on food imports.

Strategic National Responses

Countries are adopting multifaceted strategies to enhance food security. Innovations in agricultural technologies, diversification of food sources, and strategic food stockpiling are among the measures being implemented. The development of genetically modified crops resistant to drought and pestilence, exemplified by the 'Temasek Rice' project in Singapore, illustrates efforts to boost agricultural resilience. Additionally, countries are forming strategic alliances and partnerships, such as the Singapore-Australia Go-Green Co-Innovation Programme, to bolster sustainable food production and trade.

Geopolitical Scenarios and Strategic Preparations

The future geopolitical arena will likely be characterized by an intricate balance between cooperation and competition over scarce resources. Water-sharing agreements and international collaborations on food security represent avenues for mitigating potential sources of conflict. However, the risk of geopolitical tensions escalating due to resource scarcity remains.

Preventive Measures and Cooperation

To ensure stability and prevent exacerbation of scarcity-related tensions, preventive measures, including enhanced diplomatic engagements and investments in water and food production technologies, are vital. International institutions and frameworks, such as the United Nations, could play pivotal roles in mediating disputes and facilitating cooperative efforts.

Competition and Tensions

Nonetheless, competition over dwindling resources may drive some nations toward unilateral actions that could heighten regional tensions. Strategic water infrastructure developments, such as dams and diversion projects, may become focal points of conflict if not managed with considerate engagement and agreement with affected countries.

Long-term Implications

The long-term geopolitical consequences of water and food insecurities could manifest in shifting alliances, economic dependencies, and, potentially, conflicts if resources become critically scarce. A proactive and collaborative international approach, underpinned by innovative strategies for water management and food production, is necessary to navigate the challenges of resource scarcity while maintaining global stability.

In conclusion, the intricacies of managing water crises and ensuring food security are pivotal elements in the broader geopolitical landscape. Striking a balance between national interests and collective global well-being, through cooperative frameworks and innovative solutions, will be paramount in shaping a stable and secure future amidst the challenges of resource scarcity.

Information

SINGAPORE: When one thinks about rice production, the image of large flooded paddy fields usually comes to mind but what about growing it in an urban setting such as your own neighbourhood?

That is what researchers at Temasek Life Sciences Laboratory (TLL) managed to do under a pilot study funded by Temasek Foundation, which ended in February.

After the rice germinated in TLL's greenhouse, it was transported and transplanted in a six-storey high-tech vertical farm built against the wall of a Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat in Tampines.

Using a precision drip irrigation system, water and nutrients were delivered in suitable amounts to the rice's roots, ensuring that each stalk grows optimally.

This also helped to reduce the amount of water needed to grow 1kg of rice from about 3,000 litres to just 750 litres, according to sustainable technology firm Netatech, which manages the farm.

But it is not just the set-up that is helping to make rice production more sustainable and resilient to climate change. The rice itself, known as Temasek Rice, was developed by TLL and specially bred to be able to withstand tough weather conditions such as heat, drought and floods.

"What we did was to essentially look at the entire library of diversity in rice and pick up traits that were lost when people wanted to get more yields," said TLL's CEO Peter Chia, adding that they chose rice that had a shorter stature, greater submergence tolerance and fungal resistance.

"Then we backcrossed those traits into those good quality rice and introduced so-called trait into the rice we have now, which is called Temasek Rice."

As industrial-grade facilities or high-tech farms tend to focus on producing single fish species and specification, Prof Chen said small farms will play a role in ensuring diversity in the aquaculture sector.

"Consumers want choice, and they don't eat the same thing over and over again, so it's not realistic to have all the fish being produced by big players (who may only produce certain types of fish) because you need diversity and balance," he said.

"Many of these farms have been around for a long time so they know the local consumer best and what consumers want and what is not so popular."

"So instead of trying to compete with the bigger tech-driven farms, they can try to complement them by producing other types of fish or fish of different sizes to cater to various consumer profiles," he added.

"This will add diversity and balance, helping to maintain a good seafood ecosystem."

THE FUTURE OF AQUACULTURE

Ultimately, experts and industry players say that small farms will continue to play an important role in the aquaculture sector, with Singapore eyeing to become an urban agri-food tech hub.

"Despite not being an agricultural country to begin with, Singapore has really created such a huge name out there that the world is looking into Singapore to see how this small country is able to create an aquaculture industry," said Professor Lee Chee Wee, director of Temasek Polytechnic's Aquaculture Innovation Centre, adding that the country has limited resources such as land and water.

"They are interested to see the technologies that we embrace, develop and solve these problems."

This is where existing fish farmers can contribute and help develop the aquaculture sector, he said.

Likening them to soldiers, Prof Lee said these farms have been "fighting a battle for the country to protect food security."

"The bigger players coming in can work with these small farmers because these are people who understand the water conditions fish need to survive and why certain things may not work," he added. "They know the water better than anyone else."

"So by engaging them and making them part of a bigger team, you gain important and useful knowledge and skills, which can then be combined with technology," he said.

SINGAPORE: The Marina Barrage has become an iconic landmark and a popular social space for many Singaporeans.

Clean, green, open, free and accessible to all Singaporeans and visitors, built at a cost of S$226 million, this impressive infrastructure, with a breath-taking view of the sea, was completed only in four years in 2008.

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Barrage. Its objectives range from the functional, like flood control, to the strategic, of ensuring water security, and the symbolic, in providing a landmark waterfront attraction. It has received 16 million visitors since it was built, almost three times Singapore's entire population.

It is the result of visionary planning at the highest political level, and painstaking planning and implementation by scores of officers at PUB, Singapore's national water agency.

20 YEARS IN THE MAKING

The city-state has made consistent global mark in terms of long-term water resource policy, planning, management, development, governance and technology.

This has not been easy. It has required generations of very competent engineers regularly developing innovative alternatives to address numerous challenges Singapore has faced since independence.

These includes the need to provide clean water for all uses amidst rapid economic development, population growth, high urbanisation and growing expectations and aspirations. This has been achieved in spite of the lack of space to store rainfall, erratic weather patterns and impacts of climate change.

Marina Bay, as a source of water was first considered by the government during the 1980s. Only after 1987 when Singapore River was cleaned up, did founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew challenge PUB to construct a freshwater lake in the Bay.

JAKARTA: For weeks, dozens of residents of Ridogalih Village have been flocking to a small river to bathe and wash their clothes, travelling on foot or by motorcycles under the relentless heat of a blaring summer sun.

The water wells in this sleepy village a 90-minute drive from the eastern edge of the Indonesian capital Jakarta - have dried up since early June, their depths barren and empty.

Meanwhile, the once fertile rice fields that used to stretch like a green sea have started to turn into parched dirt with withered brown rice stems jutting out of the ground.

The dry spell left residents with no choice but to seek water from the nearest body of water: Cihowe, a small river that cuts through the middle of the village.

"Even now the river's water level is already receding," 45-year-old Hanifah, who like many Indonesians goes by one name, told CNA.

The mother of two worries that if the dry spell continues, the Cihowe would reduce to a trickle just like it did in 2019 when two weather phenomena - El Nino and the so-called positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event - resulted in a prolonged drought across Indonesia.

Another is the polder project at Pulau Tekong, which will be completed by the end of this year. Polders are tracts of land that lie below sea level and are reclaimed through dykes, drainage canals and pumping stations. Water that enters polders is pumped out by the system.

Wind speed is also likely to increase by up to 20 per cent by 2100 across all three scenarios by the end of the century. By this time period, daily maximum wind gusts are likely to increase, which may cause potential damage to Singapore's infrastructure and injury to residents.

IMPROVED CAPABILITIES, EXPANDED PROJECTIONS

The third version of the National Climate Change Study comes nine years after the second. It provides updated data that will inform climate change adaptation strategies and policies against knock-on effects on food security, water security and other aspects of life.

The study adapts and downsizes global climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) sixth assessment report to provide more detailed climate projections specific to Singapore and its surrounding region. The Centre for Climate Research Singapore partnered the National Supercomputing Centre on the process, which Ms Fu likened to zooming in from a big world map to a map of Singapore that displays streets and landmarks.

Scientists used three supercomputers to complete climate simulations over three-and-a-half years, producing the world's highest-resolution climate projections for Singapore and Southeast Asia until the end of the century.

The study is an improvement over its predecessor in other ways. It measures future scenarios based on the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways, which are more comprehensive than the previously used representative concentration pathway.

BEIJING: In a war with the US over Taiwan, China would need to create a global network of companies under US sanctions, seize American assets within its borders, and issue gold-denominated bonds, according to Chinese government-affiliated researchers studying the Western response to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine .

The sanctions against Moscow have prompted hundreds of Chinese economists, financiers, and geopolitical analysts to examine how China should mitigate extreme scenarios, including loss of access to US dollars, according to a Reuters review of more than 200 Chinese-language policy papers and academic articles published since February 2022.

"In the context of intensified Sino-US strategic competition and the Taiwan Strait conflict, we should be wary of the US replicating this financial sanction model against China," wrote Chen Hongxiang, a researcher at a branch of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in eastern Jiangsu province.

China, he said, should "prepare for a rainy day" to ensure its financial and economic stability.

The specificity of the scenarios and potential countermeasures are being reported for the first time by Reuters.

In assessing Russia's experience, many of the researchers warn that China's much larger economy and dependence on advanced foreign technology and commodity imports mean a sanctions fight with the West could be far more destructive. Some doubled down on the view that increasing interdependence could be a better approach than pulling up the shutters.

Senior US military officers have said that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the People's Liberation Army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027 . Beijing has not ruled out using force to take the island, though it has never shared details about war preparations.

But discussions about US sanctions, including from researchers within China's foreign and financial policy establishment, surged 50 per cent in the 12 months following the start of the war in Ukraine compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, according to a review of China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the country's largest database of academic literature.

"Analysing various possible scenarios and coming up with China's prevention, response and countermeasures is undoubtedly a top priority for China's policymakers," Yu Yongding, an economist and former central bank adviser, wrote in a journal article in July 2022.

MOSCOW: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday (Sep 13) in Russia's Far East, state media said, for talks that Washington suspects will involve defence cooperation, while at home Kim's military fired two ballistic missiles .

"I am glad to see you," Putin said as he shook Kim's hand for about 40 seconds, welcoming him at Vostochny Cosmodrome, a modern space launch facility in the Amur region of Russia's Far East. "This is our new cosmodrome."

Kim, speaking through an interpreter, thanked Putin for the invitation and for the warmth of his reception.

The North Korean leader vowed closer ties with Moscow, saying his isolated country would "always be with Russia".

Russia has become a pariah in the West after launching full-scale hostilities in Ukraine last year and has looked to strengthen alliances with other hardline leaders ostracised by Western countries.

Putin said Moscow could help North Korea build satellites and hinted the two countries might also discuss military cooperation.

Kim told Putin that North Korea would make bilateral ties with Russia its "number one priority" and that Russia was facing down "hegemonist forces" seeking to undermine its security.

"We have always expressed full and unconditional support for all the measures taken by the Russian government, and I take this opportunity again to affirm that we will always be with Russia," Kim said, according to footage broadcast on Russian TV.

Their one-on-one talks, as well as discussions with delegations, lasted around two hours before the leaders proceeded to an official dinner in Kim's honour, Russian state-run news agencies said.

The summit between the leaders of the two countries, which have become increasingly isolated internationally, is being watched closely by Washington and allies, who suspect they could agree to trade arms and defence technology.

US and South Korean officials have expressed concern that Kim would discuss providing weapons and ammunition to Russia, which has expended vast stocks in more than 18 months of war in Ukraine . Moscow and Pyongyang have denied such intentions.

Experts say Russia will likely use the talks to seek artillery shells and antitank missiles from North Korea, which wants advanced satellite and nuclear-powered submarine technology in return.

"We'll talk about all the issues, without haste. There is time," Putin said, when asked by reporters whether military cooperation would be on the agenda.

SINGAPORE: Singapore and Australia will launch a new A$20 million (US$13.2 million) programme to support small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) from both countries to jointly develop innovative green products.

Under the Go-Green Co-Innovation Programme, Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, as well as Enterprise Singapore will set aside the sum to support SMEs from both countries over the next four years, said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) in a factsheet.

The programme falls under the Singapore-Australia Green Economy Agreement, which was signed by both countries in October 2022.

Singapore and Australia will also work towards establishing a green and digital shipping corridor between their ports by the end of 2025, MFA said.

The two countries have finalised the guiding principles and work plan to guide collaboration under a food pact, which aims to increase the trade of food products, promote Singapore as a transhipment hub for Australian food products, and cooperate on global food security issues.

"When you think about the future objectives that both Singapore and Australia would like to see for our economies and societies, clearly, there are many shared objectives," said Acting Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Friday (Jun 2), speaking at a joint press conference with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

"We both want a greener and cleaner future, and we will get to net zero. We both want more resilient supply chains, particularly in critical areas like food and energy," Mr Wong continued, responding to a question about what the private sector can take away from the partnership.

This "very clear alignment" of objectives will provide many opportunities for the private sector to collaborate, he added. "Because we cannot achieve all that we want through government collaboration."

The private sector in the region is "looking for certainty" and are up for investments, said Mr Albanese.

"They know the enormous economic opportunity that areas like green hydrogen, the transition to green shipping, to cleaner aviation, the use of biofuels, the transition that is occurring in the economies of the world, they understand that it's an opportunity," he added.

"But they're looking for governments to facilitate the investments that they're up for making."

Mr Wong received Mr Albanese at the Istana on Friday as Acting Prime Minister for the 8th Singapore-Australia Leaders' Meeting, after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong tested positive for COVID-19 again on Thursday.

Mr Albanese is due to deliver the keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Friday evening.

Source:Channel News Asia

Content:SINGAPORE: Singapore's imports of Thai rice can be easily met by alternative sources, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) in response to CNA queries about recent reports of severe droughts in Thailand that had affected rice production there.

"Singapore's demand for rice is very small compared to total global rice production. For example, we account for only 1.2 per cent, 1.2 per cent and 0.6 per cent of Thailand, Vietnam and India's total rice exports in 2018 respectively," an MTI spokesman told CNA.

"Over the years, we have been deliberate in our diversification strategy. Besides Thailand, Vietnam and India, we also import rice from Myanmar, Cambodia, Japan and the US. Some of these source countries, such as the US, are less affected by domestic shortages and will alleviate any shortages from other source countries."

According to MTI, the Rice Stockpile Scheme (RSS) ensures an adequate supply of rice in the market during supply disruption, and all white rice, basmati rice, ponni rice and parboiled rice are classified as stockpile-grade rice.

"Importers are required to store two months' worth of imports in government-designated warehouses," said the spokesman.

An NTUC FairPrice spokesman told CNA that socio-economic factors and unfavourable weather conditions have affected supply and prices of rice from Thailand over the past year.

The spokesman said FairPrice has limited the price increase over the past year to about 5 per cent on average, across its range of housebrand rice from Thailand.

"This is due to various strategies such as stockpiling and forward buying to protect consumers from supply and price fluctuations."

NTUC FairPrice also imports rice from Vietnam, India, Australia, USA, Pakistan, Japan and Cambodia, said the spokesman.

The supermarket chain has seen "growing acceptance" from its customers for rice from countries other than Thailand.

"For example, the sales mix for Thai rice had decreased from about 90 per cent 10 years ago compared to about 75 per cent today. Concurrently, we have seen increased popularity of rice from Vietnam, which makes up about 15 per cent of our rice sales today," the spokesman added.

For now, consumers in Singapore can still cope with some price increases because of the country's relatively higher household incomes compared to most other countries, said Professor Paul Teng, adjunct senior fellow of food security in the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University.

But the big threat to Singapore's food security comes when large importing countries like China and Indonesia also suffer shortages in their food (rice) production, he added.

"They will be in the market then to import huge volumes of rice and take up almost all that is available in the marketplace."

Only a small amount of rice, or 7 to 10 per cent of total global production, is traded, so any natural or man-made phenomenon that reduces rice production in main rice exporting countries like India, Vietnam and Thailand has implications, said Prof Teng.

"Importing countries like Singapore, Philippines and Indonesia will all be competing for the reduced amount of rice. The problem is exacerbated if rice crops in the big importing countries like Indonesia and the Philippines are also affected by climate change and production in those countries are also reduced," he added.

FOOD SECURITY VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

The Singapore Food Agency (SFA) noted that the country's food security is vulnerable to global driving forces and trends, such as population growth, rising urbanisation and incomes, disease outbreaks, resource scarcity and increasingly, climate change.

"Singapore imports over 90 per cent of our food. We are exposed to global price and supply fluctuations as well as threats of food supply disruption and food contamination internationally," said an SFA spokesman.

"These vulnerabilities will become more acute overtime; as global crop and fishery yields are estimated to decline with the changing climate."

Citing January 2018 when Malaysia's leafy vegetable production was affected by a monsoon, the spokesman said Singapore's supply of vegetables from Malaysia decreased by about 20 per cent as compared to the same period the year before. According to the SFA, Malaysia supplied about 70 per cent of Singapore's total leafy vegetable import in 2017.

"Nevertheless, there was no significant impact to Singapore as importers have alternative sources like Thailand and China that were not affected by the monsoon to meet local demand and stabilise supply," said the SFA spokesman.

Aside from diversification, the spokesman said SFA also focuses on growing local produce as well as overseas.

"Local production will help mitigate our reliance on imports and serve as a buffer during supply disruptions to import sources. Our agri-food industry needs to transform into one that is highly productive and employs climate-resilient and sustainable technologies," said the spokesman.

"We envisage farming to become more like manufacturing where production takes place within a controlled environment with a defined input. The result is an assured and consistent output, and a predictable way to address the effects of climate change and extreme weather."

Venturing overseas also opens up new markets and helps local farms overcome land constraints, said the SFA spokesman.

"Produce from local farms, which are established overseas could also be exported back to Singapore, contributing to our food security."

Prof Teng said "time-tested actions" like building stockpiles, diversification, farming overseas and technology-enabled indoor farming of selected food types in Singapore could boost food security.

He noted that the government could put early warning systems for food insecurity based on monitoring and computer modeling, to give Singapore a head start on sourcing for supplies.

"It is also imaginable that indoor farms to enable more community-based farming be supported by the government so that more citizens take ownership of their food security for some food items," he added.

Prof Teng noted that in the longer term, climate change will affect the types of crops and animals that Singapore's traditional food sources can grow, as well as the nutritive value of the exported food.

As for rice, he believes the real problem will surface when total global rice production has decreased due to climate change, but rice consumption continues to increase due to population growth and more people switching to eating rice, away from their traditional foods like taro, maize and plantain.

For alternatives, Prof Teng said wheat and potato are better for the environment as they require less water to produce the same amount, compared to rice.

"In the longer term, while rice remains the preferred staple food for most Singaporeans, it may behoove us to consider reducing our per capita consumption of rice and replace it with more wheat and potato."

JAKARTA: Indonesia's inflation rate has continued to climb, reaching 4.94 per cent year-on-year in July.

The July figure is the country's highest inflation rate since October 2015. Back then, it was 6.25 per cent.

This comes amid soaring food and energy prices globally as well as crop failures domestically, according to Mr Margo Yuwono, head of the Indonesian statistics agency.

"Global commodity prices, as well as some situations that occured domestically such as rainfall and several government policies related to energy policy, have affected our inflation in July 2022," said Mr Yuwono on Aug 1 when he announced the latest inflation rate.

He pointed out that the major contributors to rising inflation include hikes in the prices of chillies and shallots as a result of crop failures amid recent heavy rainfall.

Higher airfares and cost of household fuel were also among the factors leading to higher inflation, said Mr Yuwono.

On the ground, people have been feeling the pinch. Many food vendors are left with little option but to raise their prices. Some have also opted to use less sambal for the time being, as chillies and shallots, which are key ingredients of the sauce, are more expensive now.

In January, Indonesia's inflation rate was 2.18 per cent. By April, it reached 3.47 per cent.

In May, it increased slightly to 3.55 per cent before climbing to 4.35 per cent in June.

The June and July figures are above the central bank's inflation rate target of between 2 per cent and 4 per cent.

Analysts interviewed by CNA said the current inflation rate is brought about by an accumulation of several factors in the past few months.

Looking ahead, they expect the inflation rate to continue edging upwards.

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