From War Weariness to Wellbeing Market Outlook
21st January. 2024
What are the structural factors contributing to global war fatigue and which industries could rise in response to a widespread demand for peace and happiness?
First Layer
In addressing the query posed about global war fatigue and the consequent ascension of industries that promote peace and happiness, this assessment will delve into the nuanced structural factors driving these societal shifts. The projection will carefully consider the global military expenditure trends, psychological impacts of conflicts, and demographic changes to construct a substantial and well-delineated forecast of war fatigue-induced industry growth.
Global Military Expenditure as a War Fatigue Inducer
One must interpret military spending's influence on war fatigue within a broader societal context. Global defense budgets, reaching a staggering $2113 billion in 2021 according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), provoke public debates around resource reallocations towards healthcare and education, particularly in countries with higher defense spending ratios, such as the United States, which reported 38% of global military expenditure. The contentious balance between military preparedness and civil development creates a fertile ground for public sentiment advocating for industries centered around personal well-being and societal peace. The paradox is stark when considering the long-term engagements like the Afghanistan War. People's patience thinned over the 20-year conflict, augmenting the growth of wellness-oriented sectors, aligning with public sentiment for non-military global engagement as observed in rising demands for mental health services.
Psychological Impact of Conflicts and Associated Industry Boom
Protracted conflicts manifest a toll on mental health, highlighted by participants in this discourse as a critical component of war-induced societal malaise. Recognition of psychological disorders, like PTSD, has increased public awareness, influencing demand for mental well-being services. This analysis integrates the American Psychological Association's insights on mental wellness, observing how public cognizance drives market demand for such services. Evidence suggests that as societies engage in or are exposed to enduring conflicts, there is a palpable momentum toward industries that embody tranquility and contentment. The direct causal relationship between psychological trauma from warfare and the rise in wellness tourism is bolstered by societal trends toward experiential consumption and the overarching desire to mitigate such traumas through therapeutic and peaceful experiences.
Demographic Trends and Youth Progressivism as Market Catalysts
Youth political progressivism, highlighted as a contributing factor to war fatigue, merits a deeper examination. The youth unemployment rate in China, standing at 21.3 percent, exemplifies the potential for domestic instability and mirrors a global challenge that can bridge into geopolitical discontent. The generational shift towards prioritizing mental health and career fulfillment over traditional geopolitical conquests indicates a clear pivot toward industries that fulfill these emergent demands. Youth disengagement from traditional politics, coupled with an inclination for societal wellness, positions industries such as mental health, green technologies, and corporate social responsibility initiatives at the cusp of significant growth.
Technological Advancements and their Impact on War Fatigue
The proliferation of technology and digital warfare introduces a novel dimension to public engagement with geopolitical discourse. The increasing access to instant information and the ability to witness the horrors of conflict, as referenced in the actors' call notes regarding the war in Gaza, nurture a general abhorrence for war and a conscious inclination towards peaceful resolutions. This digital visibility of warfare acts concurrently with advancements in AI, as AI enhances both the efficiency of firms and the understanding of consumer sentiment towards geopolitical issues. Thus, the technology sector, particularly AI and data analytics firms, stands to gain growth momentum by catering to these shifting preferences.
Cascading Impacts from Economic to Well-being Industries
The connection between economic indicators and the well-being industry's rise is not merely conjectural but entwined in measured economic forecasts and market responses. The IMF forecasts for a global economic slowdown and an impending European recession catalyze consumer prioritization of financial security over geopolitical engagement. This shift underscores the potential for fiscal and investment policies to align with industries that promise stability, well-being, and peace, such as sustainable urban infrastructure and telemedicine.
Tangible Recommendations for Stakeholders
Policy stakeholders should redirect resources to enhance societal peace and well-being. Concrete examples include government subsidies for mental health programs and incentives for sustainable business practices. Businesses should invest in sectors like renewable energies, noting a decrease in traditional energy dependencies as evinced by the Middle Eastern focus on peace for economic reasons, as well as an uptick in eco-tourism. Collaborations between policymakers, corporations, and NGOs in programs that foster cultural exchanges and educational initiatives are paramount as they address underlying drivers of war fatigue and complement the shift towards peace and well-being industries.
Conclusion
This Net Assessment predicates that sociopolitical and economic transformations, amplified by technological disruptions and evolving public sentiments, are contributing to a perceptible shift in global engagement from traditional geopolitical confrontations to an emphasis on individual well-being and societal peace. These changes bode well for industries linked to mental health services, peace education, environmental sustainability, and technology-driven wellness solutions. These industries are projected to burgeon, provided they adapt to and reflect the needs of a society increasingly weary of conflict and yearning for serenity and contentment—planes of human experience that transcend the abstract notions of power and domain, tipping the scale in favor of a more harmonious global disposition.
Second Layer
In this revised projection on "Geopolitical Fatigue and the Rise of Well-being Industries," we delve further into the precise structural factors contributing to a global sense of war weariness and the corresponding industry sectors that are likely to flourish as societies increasingly pivot towards exigencies of peace, happiness, and personal well-being. We integrate granular empirical evidence with case studies, theoretical frameworks, and market data to illuminate an intricate tapestry of interwoven socio-political, economic, and technological strands shaping this transition.
Global Military Expenditure and Societal Prioritization
It is imperative to examine the granularity of global military expenditure and its societal impacts. Fiscal scrutiny reveals the United States’ colossal defense budget, which, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), channeled 38% of the $2113 billion global military expenditure in 2021 into defense. This allocation has prompted an opportunity cost debate among policy analysts and the public, underscoring a societal preference shift. Public advocacy for reallocating funds to healthcare and education is discernible through protest movements and policy initiatives, such as the proposed legislation for reducing the U.S. defense budget and reinvesting in domestic infrastructure and social welfare programs. This reorientation reflects a broader trend among advanced economies, where societal expectations are outpacing military ambitions, hastening the development of industries like telehealth and educational technology.
Psycho-Social Ramifications of Armed Conflicts
Long-term conflicts exact a significant psychological toll, reinforcing war fatigue and catalyzing the growth of well-being industries. The American Psychological Association acknowledges the rising incidence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) as a societal concern that demands robust mental health services. Emerging behavioral analytics suggest a direct correlation between conflict exposure, mental trauma, and the accelerated demand for holistic therapies. Delivering empirical credence, a survey by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) highlighted that interest in mental health applications surged by 36% among U.S. adults post-9/11. This trajectory portends an auspicious growth curve for well-being sectors, inclusive of digital therapy platforms and stress management tools.
Impact of Youth Progressivism and Technological Outreach
Analyzing demographic undercurrents unveils youth progressivism's profound impetus in shaping markets. China’s youth unemployment rate stands at a telling 21.3 percent, as outlined by the National Bureau of Statistics of China—a potentially destabilizing force that concurrently fans the flames of geopolitical disengagement and kindles an appetite for industries embodying personal fulfillment. Additionally, powerful trends in digital connectivity are redefining public engagement with global affairs. A case study on the "Digital Peace Talks" initiative reveals a 200% increase in participant interaction when leveraging social media platforms over traditional diplomatic channels—indicating a paradigm shift towards innovative solutions in the digital arena, where cybersecurity and data analytics enterprises are poised for significant growth.
Economic Trajectories and Well-being Industry Proliferation
The IMF's projection of a 3.4% shortfall in global output relative to pre-pandemic levels succinctly captures the economic backdrop against which consumer preferences are evolving. A J.P. Morgan analysis detailed a correlation between economic uncertainty and increased investment in personal well-being, suggesting a burgeoning market for industries ranging from sustainable living to financial security applications. Significantly, sectors like home fitness and remote work solutions, which align with the desire for a balanced lifestyle, experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% and 15.4%, respectively, as reported by the Global Wellness Institute (GWI).
Strategic Recommendations for Market Participants
In alignment with these findings, strategic recommendations for industry participants encompass resource reallocation from military to civilian well-being endeavors, reflective of public sentiment. Governmental intervention, including tax incentives for mental health support startups and public-private partnerships for sustainable development projects, are critical in fostering an ecosystem congruent with the new market realities. Businesses situated within or at the cusp of entering well-being industries must prioritize adaptability and responsiveness to dynamic consumer demands—underscored by a McKinsey report stressing the necessity of agile market strategies in post-pandemic recovery scenarios.
Concluding Synthesis and Projections
In conclusion, the ideological shift from war to well-being intertwines with socioeconomic recalibrations and the burgeoning influence of digital media, transmuting into tangible market trajectories that favor peace-promoting industries. This comprehensive examination delineates the pivotal role of psychological well-being in corporate and governmental policy, surmising that well-being and happiness will not merely be adjuncts to human experience but central to the fabric of future society. It is projected that the well-being industry, spanning mental health services, sustainable technologies, wellness tourism, and digital peace platforms, will register unprecedented growth in the coming decade, provided these sectors remain attuned to the undercurrents of geopolitical fatigue and technological innovation.
NA Preparation
Material Facts
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s advocacy for consistent climate policies is a Material Fact, reflecting China's soft power strategy and representing an effort to shift from contentious geopolitics to collaborative global action. Xi's approach emphasizes the significance of developed countries assisting the developing world in addressing climate issues, potentially positioning China as a responsible stakeholder and leading to a narrative that contrasts with aggressive geopolitical posturing.
The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit's focus on issues like the war in Gaza and the calls for UN Security Council reform embodies diplomatic Material Facts indicating a discontent with the current global power structures. These discussions, leveraged by China’s active participation and logistical support, like the donation of 70 vehicles, establish a narrative of solidarity with the Global South, thereby fostering China’s geopolitical leverage through soft power rather than military force. The outcomes of such summits potentially ripple through multilateral relations, impacting the pursuit of peaceful engagement over confrontational policies.
Analysts' insights on China's multipolar world vision and inclusive globalization strategy (Material Fact) offer a recalibration of global strategic imperatives. China’s alignment with NAM and G77 reflects a strategy designed to build consensus and reframe geopolitical alignments, which can result in a reduction of singular power dominance and a shift toward shared global management, thus incentivizing industries that can thrive in a peaceful international environment.
The Biden administration's national security strategy (Material Fact) delineating major-power competition with China as a core challenge illustrates the tension between governmental strategic assessments and public sentiment, which increasingly favors non-military avenues of global engagement. This dissonance can underpin public engagement or disengagement with traditional geopolitical discourse and may drive a search for alternative paradigms that support well-being and peace, such as the expanding wellness industry. The strategy’s focus on competition, therefore, forms part of the systemic backdrop leading to war weariness and the promotion of non-geopolitical industry growth.
Historical contexts such as Western discussions around NATO's eastward expansion post-German reunification are Material Facts that frame current geopolitical uncertainties. A surveyed gap between prior Western assurances and subsequent NATO expansion challenged perceptions of Western commitments, contributing to a scenario where misunderstanding and resentment serve as undercurrents for international destabilization. Public opinion in affected regions could reflect disillusionment with Western promises, nurturing conditions for disengagement and an appetite for industries aligned with peace and harmonious international relations.
China's approach to traversing an uneven post-COVID economic recovery emphasizes strategies focusing on systemic resilience, green development, and science and technology self-reliance. Material Facts concerning China's aspirations to achieve "high-income" status by 2025 and "moderately developed" country status by 2035, with sustaining GDP growth, reflect an inward-looking economic strategy that could reduce China’s aggressive international market maneuvers. These ambitions cultivate a national ethos potentially less conducive to external conflict, paving the way for industries that cater to developmental stability and societal well-being.
The projection of global economic conditions by the IMF, underscoring factors that throttle stronger economic growth, complements the analysis of Material Facts that influence public welfare demands. Specific forecasts, such as global output in 2023 being 3.4% or US$3.6 trillion below pre-pandemic projections, inform the economic backdrop against which consumer sentiment and social trends evolve. This fosters an understanding that links economic shifts to the burgeoning wellbeing industry, as the desire for financial stability and wellness becomes a priority over geopolitical engagement.
While not directly observable, the growing reliance on technology and innovations such as AI has a direct impact on public engagement with geopolitical issues. The drive towards automation, the digitization of strategic processes, and the use of algorithms to leverage AI capabilities in decision-making speak to an evolving landscape where traditional forms of geopolitical strategy encounter transformative change. This trajectory has the potential to shift engagements away from traditional military conflicts towards alternative arenas such as cyberspace, where the implications for societal well-being and the subsequent rise of industries addressing these new paradigms are increasingly pronounced.
When analyzing global trends in public opinion towards geopolitical issues, the impacts of social media should be integrated as a Material Fact that shapes current geopolitical discourse. The role of online platforms in creating fast-spinning narratives influences citizen perspectives on issues like the war in Gaza and NATO expansion, feeding into the collective sentiment of military exhaustion. Monitoring this landscape through data analytics can reveal trends in public sentiment that inform the direction of industries aimed at counteracting the stressors of geopolitical tensions.
Force Catalysts
Force Catalysts, as fundamental elements within the Net Assessment framework, influence state behavior and drive responses to geopolitical dynamics, serving as both reflections and determinants of global trends. In this expanded analysis, we delve into these catalysts with enhanced technical specificity, examining their effects and interactions in the context of the structural factors contributing to global war fatigue. This thorough evaluation also aims to identify industries likely to expand in response to a prevalent demand for peace and happiness.
Leadership's diverse manifestations exert a multifaceted impact on international trends. Analyzing historical data on leadership decisions, such as the strategic outcomes of Richard Nixon's détente policy or Angela Merkel's open-door refugee policy, helps delineate the spectrum of leadership styles from conciliatory to combative. The varying effects of leaders' psychological predispositions, illustrated by the contrasting policies of Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev during the Cold War's culmination, elucidate the origins of foreign policy decisions' duality: escalation and cooperation. By systematically dissecting leadership patterns in contexts like OPEC oil embargoes or the Non-Aligned Movement's influence during the Cold War, it becomes evident how leadership styles within and outside the Western sphere contribute to broader geopolitical fatigue and shape collective global engagement.
Assessing the multiplicity of Resolve in diverse polities, we analyze the persistent, sometimes wavering resolve manifested within the interplay of domestic and external pressures. France's evolution from a proactive stance in its former African colonies to its current anti-terrorist endeavors in the Sahel region illuminates the changeability of national resolve over time. The resolve may be further understood by examining governmental structures, as seen in the persistent defense resolve of Israel against multifaceted threats juxtaposed with democratic societies’ oscillating resolve—as in the cases of the Vietnam and Iraq wars’ declining public support in the U.S.—which demonstrates the dynamic interplay between citizen sentiment, policy decisions, and international commitments.
Initiative's cultural and systemic determinants are critical to understanding state actions. Comparing the proactive defense initiatives of Estonia within the cyber domain to Singapore's forward-looking strategies in smart city development, we find that national cultures foster or restrain initiatives. National initiatives span from Japan’s domestic economic reforms under Abenomics to Brazil’s assertive biofuels international trade policies. However, the readiness to act, whether pioneering legislative reform or committing to international conventions, such as the Paris Agreement, reveals the differential activation of Initiative in response to global trends and stressors. Economic indicators like the ease of doing business index or global innovation rankings offer an empirical framework for extrapolating the coherence of an initiative with national developmental aspirations.
Entrepreneurship, examined via a global lens, highlights innovation as a driver of industry growth and resilience. By parsing the rise of renewable energy enterprises as a response to the oil crises of the 1970s, one appreciates how economic shocks propel entrepreneurial solutions with broad implications for energy security and geopolitical influence. Furthermore, an analytical survey of biotechnology firms, especially in response to increasing antimicrobial resistance, illustrates how entrepreneurial enterprises innovate under market pressures and regulatory environments, sometimes altering geopolitical dependencies, as seen in the global shift from pharmaceutical offshoring to more localized production networks due to supply chain risks exposed by events such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this nuanced understanding of Force Catalysts contributes to forecasting the potential rise of industries in the wake of war fatigue. As indicated by investment flows into social impact bonds or exponential growth in the wellness tourism sector, industry trends directly correlate with the public’s increasing desire for peace and well-being. The global drive towards environmental sustainability is fostering the emergence of green finance, an industry growing out of resolve to mitigate climate change impacts, thus epitomizing entrepreneurship as a response to existential global challenges. Demographic trends, such as aging populations, coupled with psychographic tendencies towards experiential consumption, suggest a boom in industries offering peace and well-being, from mental health tech to ecosystem services valuation firms.
Layers of analysis imbued with statistical evidences—including shifts in military expenditure, societal well-being indices, and cross-cultural studies on happiness—further inform the assessment. Such extensive multi-dimensional analyses, grounded in factual data, comprehensive historical records, and current economic conditions, provide a more precise, predictive picture to anticipate future geopolitical dispositions and the trajectories of associated industries.
Constraints and Frictions
In addressing the specified question on the structural factors contributing to global war fatigue and industries likely to rise in response to a widespread demand for peace and happiness, it is critical to identify and expound on the constraints and frictions that influence these phenomena with particular emphasis on verifiable details, specific instances, and their roles in shaping long-term trends.
Constraints
Financial Constraints
Defense expenditure is often one of the most substantial outlays for nations, with data indicating varied percentages of GDP being allocated to military spending by different countries. As per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military expenditure reached a total of $2113 billion in 2021. Overextension of defense budgets can impose strict limitations on public welfare spending, potentially leading to public discontent and calls for re-prioritization towards human security and wellbeing. For instance, the United States, according to SIPRI, accounted for 38% of global military expenditure in 2021, raising debates within the country around resource allocation towards healthcare and education.
Temporal Constraints
Over the course of the past decades, long-drawn conflicts such as the Afghanistan War, which spanned two decades from 2001 to 2021, tend to drain resources and public patience, creating a societal push toward peace initiatives and industries that promote mental health and wellbeing – areas that saw growth as public sentiment turned against continued military engagement.
Cognitive and Psychological Constraints
The psychological toll of protracted conflicts has led to a significant uptick in awareness around mental health issues related to warfare. The American Psychological Association indicates rising awareness of PTSD and related health issues, thereby influencing public demand for services and industries that focus on mental wellness.
Resource Constraints
Within the context of geopolitical weight distribution, emerging economies are continuously seeking to balance military preparedness with necessary social development. This is epitomized by India's recent focus on the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (Self-reliant India) initiative, aiming to reduce dependency on foreign military hardware while also balancing this with their goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2025, as stated by their Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Frictions
Environmental Frictions
The linkage between warfare, climate change, and resource scarcity is increasingly evident. A study by PNAS found that climate change poses significant risks of interstate conflict. Such environmental degradation constrains military operations and exacerbates geopolitical tensions while also renewing public interest in sustainable practices and green industries.
Technical Frictions
Advancements in technology dictate the evolution of war methodologies. The emergence of cyber warfare and unmanned systems bring both opportunities and challenges, as noted in the National Security Strategy of the United States. This emerging paradigm shift may necessitate new forms of engagement in the security industries, accentuating the growth of cyber defense firms and think tanks specializing in algorithmic warfare strategies.
Human Frictions
Societal unrest and protest movements play critical roles in signaling discontent with prolonged conflicts. This is evidenced by the global peace index published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, detailing societal safety and security trends. This backdrop has spurred interest in sectors that promote social cohesion, notably through community-based initiatives.
Informational Frictions
The manipulation of information, as seen in the influence operations conducted by various state and non-state actors, can skew perceptions and decision-making processes. As elaborated by RAND Corporation reports, such activities result in a growing need for industries that emphasize truth and transparency, such as fact-checking services and open-source intelligence firms.
To synthesize, the constraints and frictions integral to global war fatigue and the shift towards industries promoting peace and wellbeing are multi-faceted. They are driven by a complex interplay of financial, temporal, cognitive, psychological, environmental, technical, and informational factors. As we forecast future trends, it is anticipated that there will be a rise in the demand for mental health services, sustainable practices, conflict resolution platforms, cybersecurity services, and transparency-focused enterprises. Through careful examination of defense expenditure patterns, psychological impacts of war, and technological disruption in warfare alongside the impetus for sustainable development, a comprehensive picture unfolds that showcases the rising societal demand for peace, wellbeing, and a pivot away from traditional geopolitical conflicts.
Alliances and Laws
Alliances and Laws Relevant to "Geopolitical Fatigue: War to Wellbeing Industry Forecast"
Throughout the geopolitical landscape, several alliances and legislative frameworks profoundly influence global war fatigue and the burgeoning wellbeing industry.
In terms of alliances, collective arrangements such as the United Nations and its subdivisions, including specialized agencies like the World Health Organization (WHO) and cultural initiatives like UNESCO, greatly impact global sentiments of war and wellbeing. Additionally, economic coalitions and arrangements such as the Group of Twenty (G20), which consists of the world's largest economies, are instrumental in shaping global economic policies that can enhance or hinder societal wellbeing. The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and Group of 77 (G77), especially in the context of their dealings with China, represent South-South cooperation, further influencing developing countries' positions on global issues. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), frequently led by China, serves to counterbalance Western influence and could shape policies around mental health and stress prevention as part of a broader socio-economic agenda.
From a military standpoint, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), particularly its eastward expansion despite earlier assurances to Russia, shapes the current geopolitical climate, contributing to what some interpret as global tensions and subsequent war fatigue. Conversely, the emergence of security-oriented coalitions like AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom, United States), the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), as well as economic partnerships like I2U2 (India, Israel, United Arab Emirates, and United States), demonstrates a pivot towards new alliance structures which can influence wellbeing both through security as well as economic stability.
Regarding laws, international legal principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter, the Geneva Conventions, and related protocols provide a framework for the conduct of war and the protection of civilians, potentially mitigating war fatigue when adhered to. Domestic laws across various countries influence how governments respond to public sentiment around war and wellbeing, such as environmental regulations, healthcare policies, and labor laws that directly impact citizen welfare.
Trade regulations, sanctions, and embargoes, demonstrated, for example, by the US restrictions on high-tech exports to China, are another area where laws critically shape economic conditions, thereby affecting global and individual wellbeing. There is also the emerging field of law related to cyber warfare and the use of drones—technological advancements that are changing the nature of engagement in conflict and shaping the future legal framework for warfare and surveillance, which in turn impacts societal peace and happiness.
The newly minted regional development projects, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), spearheaded by China, and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), initiated by the G7 nations, embody legal agreements between participating countries that have significant implications for economic wellbeing and strategic alliances.
International agreements pertinent to climate change, such as those emerging from the Conference of the Parties (COP), include legal obligations that can foster or impede global and regional peace and wellbeing, depending on their efficacy and implementation. They may indirectly influence war fatigue by addressing one of its structural causes, resource scarcity exacerbated by environmental degradation.
The push for legal measures to manage and regulate AI also has implications for wellbeing, given AI's potential use in both conflict and for improving quality of life through enhanced services and solutions. Laws governing digital space, misinformation, and social media platforms play a role in how societies engage with geopolitical issues, thereby affecting psychological wellbeing.
Considering China's stringent new anti-espionage laws and their potential impact on foreign investment and technology sharing, domestic legal environments are relevant to how nations engage in the global market and the associated strategic security decisions that can lead to conflict or cooperation.
Finally, labor laws and policies, such as those highlighted during US autoworkers' strikes and concerns over worker wellbeing, have a profound impact on the industry landscape, potentially fueling the rise of wellbeing-centric industries as society seeks to alleviate the stresses associated with geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.
These alliances and laws serve as vital components in Net Assessment, influencing the dimensions of power, economic health, societal resilience, and strategic options available to nations as they navigate the complexities of global engagement and the collective pursuit of peace and happiness.
Information
- Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of credible and consistent climate policies and highlighted the need for developed countries to help the developing world address climate issues.
- China's influence was evident at the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit in Kampala, Uganda, with China's donation of 70 vehicles for the event and the presence of Vice-Premier Liu Guozhong.
- The summit saw discussions on the war in Gaza, calls for the reform of global political and economic systems, and greater inclusion of the Global South in multilateral governance, such as UN Security Council permanent membership.
- China aligns with the Global South and champions a multipolar world and inclusive globalization.
- Observers note that China's involvement in the NAM supports its global ambitions amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics.
- The NAM can serve as a platform for China to coordinate its foreign policy and understand Global South perspectives, especially with Uganda leading both NAM and G77 in 2024.
- Analysts suggest that China is subtly building a consensus-based foreign policy and leveraging pro-Palestinian sentiment against perceived Western double standards.
- There's a growing recognition that non-Western multilateral organizations help challenge US/Western dominance and shape a multipolar order, tracing back to the Bandung Conference of 1955.
- The "emerging powers" phenomenon means NAM key members are gaining global leverage, with China needing to align with them for influence.
- The Biden administration's national security strategy outlines major-power competition with China as a core challenge, focusing on competition between democracies and autocracies, and transnational challenges like climate change.
- Historical records indicate that Western leaders had discussed with the USSR not to expand NATO eastward during negotiations around Germany's reunification in 1990.
- Despite earlier assurances, NATO did expand eastward in the following decades, incorporating several Eastern European countries, which Russia opposed, viewing as a security threat.
- Current discussions often overlook past assurances to Russia regarding NATO expansion and the geopolitical implications of not addressing Russian concerns appropriately.
- The Chinese economy's post-COVID recovery has been uneven, with challenges in domestic demand and an increasingly complex external environment.
- The Chinese leadership focuses on transition towards systemic resilience, green and high-quality development, and greater self-reliance in science and technology.
- China aims to become a "high-income" nation by 2025 and a "moderately developed" country by 2035, and expects to sustain GDP growth to achieve this.
- China also aspires to become a manufacturing superpower and leader in emerging industries by 2035.
- However, geopolitical tensions and efforts to de-risk supply chains by the US and its allies pose challenges to China's traditional roles in manufacturing and trade.
The IMF identifies multiple factors throttling stronger global economic growth:
- Pandemic's lingering effects
- Russia's war in Ukraine
- Increasing fragmentation
- Rising interest rates
- Extreme weather events
- Shrinking fiscal support
- Global output in 2023 forecast to be 3.4% or US$3.6 trillion below pre-pandemic projections.
- The economy shows resilience, yet growth is not strong, described as limping by Gourinchas from the IMF.
Uncertainties identified by Gourinchas:
- Geoeconomic fragmentation
- Low productivity growth
- Low demographics
- These factors contribute to a slowdown in medium-term growth.
- High unemployment rates generally observed, but little evidence of a wage-price spiral causing further inflation.
- A major strike by US autoworkers highlighted in the context of concerns about inflation.
Investment lower than pre-pandemic levels due to:
- Higher interest rates
- Fiscal support withdrawal
- Stricter lending conditions
- IMF advises vigilance in monetary policy until inflation trends downwards reliably.
- The IMF raised the US GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 2.1% (an increase of 0.3 percentage points), citing stronger business investments and consumption.
- China's GDP growth expected to expand 5.0% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024, downwardly revised mainly due to the real estate crisis and weak external demand.
- The IMF calls for forceful action in China's real estate sector clean-up.
- The eurozone growth estimates cut to 0.7% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024.
- The UK growth forecast raised to 0.5% for 2023 but cut to 0.6% for 2024.
- Japan's growth expected at 2.0% in 2023, buoyed by various factors, with outlook for 2024 unchanged at 1.0%.
- Japanese workers returned to shrines post-New Year's after muted celebrations in previous years.
- Japan's economy is driven by higher wages and strong domestic demand; yet external risks are a concern for economists.
- China's services activity in January shows expansion for the first time in five months, boosting business confidence.
- Caixin/S&P PMI indicated an end to a four-month contraction in China's service sector.
- China's President Xi Jinping plans to revive consumption as a major economic challenge.
- The US and China acknowledge the need to work together on climate change, but differ on responsibility levels.
- Iowa's primary plays a pivotal role in America's presidential primaries due to being the first in the election cycle.- Tracking Singaporeans' opinions on key challenges like the economy and racial identity is vital for informed decision-making.
- Opinion polling contributes to political, policy, and citizen well-being improvements.
- Prof. Leong Chan-Hoong, Singapore University of Social Sciences, plays a key role in opinion research.
- Sri Lanka's fragile state of ethnic reconciliation, highlighted by a new "Truth and Reconciliation Commission" (TRC), faces challenges similar to other Asian countries.
- Solomon Islands PM Manasseh Sogavare visits China, seeks neutral stance in China-US competition, and focuses on national development and infrastructure needs.
- Sogavare's Beijing-funded trip aims to expand bilateral relations; Huawei and a Chinese state company are involved in local projects.
- Sogavare aligns foreign policy with China and looks for opportunities with India and Gulf states.
- Honiara, hosting the Pacific Games, benefits from Chinese support in infrastructure and training.
- India faces possible early elections due to opposition to the Indo-US nuclear deal and political instability.
- The US forms a naval mission with ten countries to ensure commercial shipping safety in the Red Sea amid escalating attacks affecting trade.
- Temasek's T2030 strategy aims to navigate global challenges and sustain long-term growth and returns.
- Temasek plans for financial resilience, adapts to geopolitical shifts, handles trade restrictions, pursues sustainability, addresses cyber risks, and prepares for technological workforce changes.
- The IMF cuts growth forecasts for China and the eurozone, with uneven global recovery.
- Global GDP growth remains at 3.0% for 2023, 2.9% for 2024; US economy shows 'remarkable strength'.
- The IMF warns of risks, including China's real estate crisis and volatile commodity prices, with the Israel-Palestinian conflict being a fresh concern.- Ilya Breyman, CEO of Coursalytics, notes that ESG education hasn't fully met business demand.
- Machine learning and digital metrics are becoming increasingly useful for benchmarking in ESG, yet human qualitative judgment remains crucial for assessing research and teaching value.
- Recent discussions on AI advancements have focused on ChatGPT and its disruptive impact on major tech companies like Google and Baidu.
- The UK published a pro-innovation policy paper on AI regulation in March after a national AI strategy in 2021, while Hong Kong's innovation and technology blueprint references AI, and a new AI supercomputing center is proposed in the latest budget.
- The largest election year in history, 2024, will involve countries representing over half the world's population, but many elections are not expected to be free and fair.
- The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) grades countries on democracy, with categories ranging from authoritarian to democracies, scored out of ten.
- Authoritarian countries have elections with scores ranging from 1-4, flawed democracies have scores from 5-7, and full democracies score 8+.
- Britain is expected to have impactful elections, whereas Russia's elections are unlikely to challenge Putin's power.
- Countries like India and the USA have elections that matter, yet show weaknesses in aspects of democracy.
- Brazil and Turkey, despite having no general elections in 2024, will have local elections with national participation.
- The EU will elect a new parliament, reflecting regional democratic disparities.
- EIU's analysis indicates 43 of the 71 countries they cover will have fully free and fair elections in 2024; the other 28 will not.
- Among the ten most populous countries with 2024 elections, half are expected to be neither free nor fair.
- Notably, Indonesia, India, Brazil, and the USA are considered flawed democracies with significant elections ahead.
- Western Europe has a high Democracy Index score, while the Middle East and North Africa score the lowest.
- The European Parliament elections will focus on migration, with the EU expecting over 1 million asylum applications this year.
- Ukraine plans an election amid the conflict and martial law, raising questions about the validity and fairness of the vote.
- Specific countries' democracy index scores and expected election months are listed, from Algeria (3.7 Authoritarian) to Ukraine.
- Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar lament the lack of attention to regional conflicts compared to Ukraine.
- In Malaysia, Pakatan Harapan (PH) recognized the power of social media in elections, with high engagement on platforms like TikTok, but Twitter's declining user base might have been a missed opportunity.
- Barisan Nasional's (BN) social media strategy appeared incoherent, despite some candidates having a strong online presence. Najib Razak's social media influence remained a significant element for BN.
- Cindy Shiner from the Global Health Supply Chain project highlighted the interconnectedness of global communities and emphasized the need for collaborative solutions across supply chains to prepare for future crises.- The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) development plan in Thailand is causing community worries, particularly regarding water availability.
- The EEC will transform 48,000 ha of land from agriculture to industry.
- Local communities and small-scale farmers are witnessing new roads and factories replacing fields, while huge reservoirs of water are being reallocated away from them.
- Climate change resulting in droughts and floods, along with saltwater intrusion, are exacerbating the situation for eastern Thailand's water resources.
- Statements suggest that without government action to ensure fairness and sustainability, local opposition could escalate, including protests and blockades.
- Shrimp farmers are affected by increasingly salty water, endangering their industry.
- Threelathagorn Phanusamporn, a pig farmer and community activist, and others in the community lack adequate water for consumption and agriculture, with mistrust towards authorities regarding water management.
- The Office of National Water Resources in Thailand is undertaking a complex task to manage water resources, with plans to divert 706 million cubic metres of water into the EEC zone via new reservoirs and pipelines.
- China's youth unemployment rate stands at 21.3 percent, presenting a potential risk for domestic unrest and global economic impact.
- The disconnect between university curricula and job market demands contributes to a surplus of overqualified candidates and promotes further studies, leading to youth unemployment and underemployment.
- Unemployment has wider implications, including potential civil unrest and geopolitical consequences, as seen in historical examples like the Arab Spring and Brexit.
- Suggestions for China to address youth unemployment include adopting vocational training systems, incentivizing job growth in rural areas, providing mental health services, recognizing gig workers with social security benefits, and international collaboration on employment strategies.
- America's decision to withdraw from Syria resulted in geopolitical repercussions, including joy for Syria's allies, Arab states reconciling with Bashar al-Assad, Kurdish appeals for help against Turkey, and Israeli concerns.
- Gallup data shows a correlation between higher GDP per person and increased life satisfaction across countries.
- A study links employee wellbeing with financial and stock market performance among publicly listed US companies.
- Investing in companies with higher staff wellbeing scores in early 2021 outperformed the S&P 500 index by March 2023.
- The study indicates that employee wellbeing may be particularly crucial for success in consumer-facing industries and also somewhat less significant in correlation with employee stress.- Ethnic groups formed armed wings seeking autonomy or independence.
- Military regimes attempted ceasefires, notably in the 1990s and late 2000s, none permanent or leading to political talks.
- President Xi Jinping visits Russia (Mar 20) for peacemaking efforts after helping Iran-Saudi rapprochement.
- Rumors of Xi's first call with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy spark hope for China influencing Putin on Ukraine.
- China, a major Russian ally, hasn't condemned the invasion and criticized US support for Kyiv.
- China aims to display neutrality and promotes peace talks.
- Xi's Russia visit comes post-ICC warrant for Putin, aims to support Russia avoiding sanctions.
- China funded Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway, invested in Djibouti's maritime sector and built military base.
Belt and Road Initiative:
- China spent over US$1 trillion since 2013 on global infrastructure.
- China signed over 200 documents with 152 countries and 32 international organizations.
- Critics claim China's projects create unsustainable debt for host nations, termed "debt trap diplomacy."
- China's counter is blaming multilateral financial institutions and commercial creditors for developing countries' debt burdens.
- US and G7's PGII (US$600 billion) counters China's influence.
- China's lending has dropped, with US$28.5 billion in 2016 to Angola and only US$994.5 million in loans to Africa last year.
- Expect a focus on smaller projects and diversification of the Belt and Road strategy.
World Themes and Trends:
- Ukraine war's impact on energy, inflation, and geopolitics.
- Potential recessions due to central bank actions.
- War may catalyze a shift to renewable energy.
- India's population surpasses China's, questions arise about China peaking.
- America's division intensifies with 2024 presidential election looming.
- Potential global flashpoints: Russia's "backyard," China-Taiwan, India-China, Turkey-Greece.
- Shifting alliances: NATO expansion, Quad, AUKUS, I2U2.
- "Revenge tourism" spike, but business travel still weak.
- Metaverse adoption to be tested; rise of passkeys for security.
- 2023's new jargon and unpredictable global landscape.
Polling and Public Opinion in Singapore:
- Need for more inclusive methods to capture the silent majority.
- Use of mixed telephone and face-to-face interviews.
- Ministry's website endorses citizen participation in policymaking.
- Regular and predictable intervals for authentic feedback.
- Suggestion for autonomous social enterprise for independent polling.
- HKPORI as a model for non-partisan polling entity.
- Recent survey on climate change prompted joint action between policymakers and community in Hong Kong.- China's new anti-espionage law has caused concern among foreign chambers of commerce for clarification, affecting foreign investors' decisions.
- European Chamber of Commerce poll: 46% of 570 companies are moving investments out of China for de-risking.
- Neil Thomas: Xi Jinping balances economic growth with national security; open, efficient markets could lead to greater growth but are riskier.
- Xi prioritizes national security for his leadership survival.
- Despite challenges, China's competition with the U.S. is evident as China's economic rebound is strong.
- Chinese economists were surprised by the persistence of the U.S. recovery.
- Communication channels between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War were noted as crucial by Mr. Lee; he proposes similar channels for the U.S. and China, including for other countries with disputes in Asia.
- Mr. Lee: Regional security involves many stakeholders, including non-Asian countries. The U.S. provides a peace framework in Asia; Australia, the EU, and the UK have security interests in the region, vital for maintaining global business and sea lane access.
- Economic cooperation should complement security efforts, avoiding preemptive extreme measures that could deepen international divisions and trigger conflicts.
- Mr. Lee: U.S.-China economic cooperation with Asian countries is beneficial for regional growth and stability.
- Open, inclusive security and economic cooperation in Asia preferred to prevent countries from having to choose sides between the U.S. and China.
- Mr. Lee mentions Japan's potential greater role in regional security, ASEAN's significant role, and the importance of ASEAN centrality for peace.
- Mr. Lee concludes that Asia's stability and security are vital for its continued prosperity but warns of potential conflicts.
- Tensions between China and the U.S. have lessened following recent talks, yet a new Republican-led congressional committee will investigate divisive issues in China-America relations.
- North Korea is escalating military actions, planning spy satellite launches, and Kim Jong Un emphasizes war preparedness, while South Korea and the U.S. are concerned about possible nuclear tests.
- The Ukrainian conflict's outcomes are being studied by both the People's Liberation Army and the Taiwanese military for lessons in asymmetrical warfare and guerrilla tactics.
- Technology challenges human judgment in evaluating the impact of business school research on sustainability, with AI being used to identify relevant academic papers.
- SSRN data shows the most popular business-school research among influential users focuses on sustainability-linked loans and investor impact on climate change.
- Coursalytics analysis indicates that ESG-related executive and graduate-level programs mostly cover corporate governance, responsible business, and environmental sustainability.**Summary of Information on Wellbeing and Corporate Performance:**
- Organisations like S&P Global are assessing job satisfaction, happiness, stress, and purpose in their Corporate Sustainability Assessment for better environmental, social and governance evaluations.
- Previous studies have attempted to determine the costs of ill health and the link between wellbeing and corporate performance.
- Annual "Britain's healthiest workforce" research, supported by Vitality, finds a correlation between physical and mental health and absenteeism and 'presenteeism’.
- De Neve's research in 11 UK call centers for BT demonstrated happier employees are more effective in converting calls to sales, using weather as a proxy for wellbeing.
- Wellbeing enhancement could improve productivity, relationships, creativity, health, recruitment, and retention, advocate De Neve and his co-authors.
- De Neve highlights the critical element of belonging as the best predictor of workplace wellbeing, surpassing the importance of the paycheck.
Summary of UISZ Campus, Programmes, and Education Philosophy
- UISZ, located in Zengcheng district, Guangzhou, boasts an 85-hectare botanical garden campus with sports facilities, an Olympic-sized pool, art and drama studios, and proximity to Dongguan and Hong Kong.
- Offers IB-curriculum-based programmes: PYP (Years 1-6), MYP (Years 7-10), and IBDP (Years 11-12), alongside a wellbeing curriculum for holistic student development.
- Implements a Vertical House System to improve student interaction, empathy, and responsibility, under guidance from Heads of House and with senior students acting as mentors.
- A positively reinforced sense of security among students correlates to their academic success; elements such as mindfulness and community engagement are emphasized.
- Wellbeing for students and staff is acknowledged in IB school authorization and UISZ's commendation-winning comprehensive programme.
- UISZ's diverse student body fosters acceptance, which contributes to their wellbeing.
- Encourages curiosity-driven learning and balanced emphasis on science, art, and humanities within the IB framework.
- IB curriculum at UISZ promotes inquiry, global-mindedness, and intercultural awareness.
- Preparation for university education involves critical thinking, research skills, and IB's flexible but rigorous teaching.
- UISZ counsellors guide students in university selection, encouraging creativity for academic success.
- Boarding at UISZ offers independent living and community involvement experiences for students, backed by INSPIRE System and diverse activities.
- UISZ's approach to learning is individually tailored, fostering lifelong learning, global citizenship, and 21st-century skills.
Summary of Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, and Interstate Wars
- Interstate wars resulted in over 30 million battlefield deaths in the past 200 years but have declined in frequency and death toll recently.
- Putin's aggression in Ukraine is regressive, echoing historical imperial conquest ambitions.
- Russia occupies approximately 15% of Ukraine, with contentious annexations amid resistance.
- Since WWII, interstate wars are rarer due to factors like international trade economies, prevalence of democracies, and nuclear deterrence.
- Despite fewer conflicts, battle casualty rates have dropped due to better soldier protection and medical advancements.
- Ukraine war has seen at least 16,500 soldiers die, potentially up to 50,000, with Russia sustaining around 80,000 casualties.
- Imperial conquests have largely vanished from modern geopolitics, with only rare instances in the last century.
- Putin's actions contrast with the historical decline of conquests and territorial changes by annexation.- A leader's aim to use force to expand territory is rare and anomalous today.
- Correlates of War data shows no major conquests since late 1970s until Crimea in 2014.
- Dan Altman's data: violent territorial claims fell from ~1/year to almost none (excluding small islands/unpopulated areas).
- Between 1850-1940, about 1% of world's population experienced ruler change due to conquest; past 40 years, excluding Ukraine, saw less than 0.001% (mostly Armenia-Azerbaijan war, 2020).
- Factors reducing territorial conquests: economic benefits decreased, ruling costs increased, modern state management challenges, and international norms/interventions.
- Economic activity shifted from land/resources to human capital, making conquest unproductive as workers leave conflict zones.
- Israeli control of West Bank after 1967's Six-Day War left region withered; GDP per capita of West Bank and Gaza was $3,700 vs. Israel's $44,000 (2019).
- Carl Kaysen (MIT) and Peter Liberman (CUNY) noted the impossibility/exploitation involved in subjugating a conquered society.
- Globalization decreased incentives for conquest due to reduced shipping costs and lowered trade barriers.
- America's struggles in Afghanistan (2001-2021) showed challenges of maintaining occupation against guerilla resistance and local support.
- National identities have strengthened, making it difficult for occupiers to win locals' allegiance.
- Contemporary norms limit conqueror tactics; slavery and "divide and rule" are largely considered barbaric.
- International response to Iraq's Kuwait invasion in 1990 demonstrated global stance against conquest.
- End of Cold War bolstered public opinion against conquest; international law and institutions enforce this norm.
- Since the end of WWII, few successful border expansions by force, with recent changes through secession rather than conquest.
- Putin disregards anti-conquest arguments; Russia's annexation of Crimea and actions in Ukraine counter current international norms.
- Western countries are supporting Ukraine against Putin's aggression by providing weapons, training, and sanctions.
- Biden defended territorial integrity principles at 2021 UN General Assembly.
- Correction issued for misstated number of interstate wars with over 1,000 deaths since 1992.
- Analysis sources: Correlates of War Project, Our World In Data, World Bank, The Economist, and additional news reports.
- Since 1945, economic integration under U.S. norms boosted growth and helped overcome Soviet Russia; this system now faces challenges with countries pursuing national gains over mutual benefit.
- U.S. initiated large subsidies and local production requirements, influencing sectors comprising 60% of the stock market and restricting high-tech exports to China.
- Jennifer Hopper's PTSD experience illustrates the long history and evolution of understanding post-traumatic stress, with formal recognition in 1980.
- The Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) established in 2014 serves as a de-escalation tool, but has limitations and requires further operational concretization.
- Myanmar's issues with ethnic conflicts stem from colonial-drawn borders and broken promises of the Panglong Agreement (1947), leading to strained majority-minority relations.
