Evolving Alliances in the Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Chessboard
11th February, 2024
Considering the dynamic geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia, how are the evolving U.S.-China relations and developments in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific influencing Southeast Asian countries' alignment, and what opportunities are emerging for these nations to renegotiate their roles within regional and global economic systems, thereby redefining their positions and alliances both bilaterally and multilaterally?
First Layer
In the intricate interplay of geopolitics within Southeast Asia, the evolving U.S.-China relations and the ensuing developments within the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific region unequivocally influence the alignment of countries within this theater. As nations renegotiate their positions and alliances, both bilaterally and multilaterally, amidst a global economy where strategic competition between the U.S. and China escalates, opportunities emerge for them to define their roles within the regional and global economic frameworks more assertively.
Adeptly maneuvering these diplomatic waters, Southeast Asian nations are determining their regional security and economic corridor's future, including the High-Speed Rail connectivity from Bangkok through Malaysia to Singapore. The success of pivotal projects like this, specifically mentioned in the preparatory material, has the potential to alter regional economic dynamics significantly, offering newfound avenues for collaboration and prosperity while navigating complex sovereignty concerns.
Taking a magnified lens to this geopolitical pact, we witness demonstrable fluctuations in foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns. In the face of declining U.S. FDI and China's augmented investments across sectors like electronic vehicles (EV) in countries like Thailand and Malaysia, Southeast Asian nations contend with balancing economic dependencies and strategic posturing. Notably, U.S. FDI in Vietnam exhibits a discernible reduction, from $0.7 billion in 2022 to $0.5 billion in recent times, now ranking behind investments from other nations including Samoa and the Netherlands.
Furthermore, within the defense sector, regulatory constraints such as the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and the Wassenaar Arrangement presuppose the strategic purchasing and development of military technology by these nations, thereby influencing their defense and security-based alliances. This is particularly salient in light of Singapore's expanded role in trans-Pacific trade protocols and the Philippines' recalibration of its defense agreements vis-à-vis the U.S. These instances illustrate an intricate dance of diplomacy and policy-making that nations adopt in response to the prevailing winds of geopolitical change.
In concert with these developments, the emergence of innovative economic sectors and green economy initiatives across Southeast Asia, catalyzed by environmental imperatives and clean energy transitions, precipitates a reevaluation of growth strategies. Vietnam's solar energy transition and Indonesia's "Making Indonesia 4.0" initiative exemplify entrepreneurial vigor reshaping these nations' strategic economic narratives and alliances. For instance, Vietnam's leap into the solar energy sector has repositioned it within the international green energy discourse, embodying a strategic pivot towards both energy independence and alignment with global climate action goals.
Risk analyses and contingency planning become ever-more critical as trade tensions and geopolitical frictions trigger realignments within Southeast Asia. Recent dialogues between China and U.S. officials potentially signal a shared interest in stabilizing their bilateral relationship to add certainty to global affairs. Yet, this détente might alter the trajectory of Southeast Asian alignment, prompting recalibration of ties with economic giants.
As these countries navigate the U.S.-China tug-of-war, they could endeavor to exploit opportunities arising from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and intensify engagements within minilateral groupings like the Quad. These international configurations provide Southeast Asian nations with platforms to enhance their geopolitical leverage and economic vitality while choosing which strategic developments to endorse or eschew.
The transformative impact of developments in the South China Sea also has immediate ramifications for sovereignty concerns and regional stability. Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's emphasis on freedom of navigation and peaceful resolution in these contested waters underscores the intricate dance of diplomacy Southeast Asian nations must engage in. The Declaration of Conduct conversations and the crafting of a Code of Conduct therein bear testament to the region's desire to architect a rules-based order, aspiring for comity amid claims and counterclaims.
Summatively, the geopolitical strategizing within Southeast Asia is a testament to the region's collective quest for stability, economic growth, and the prudence to leverage superpower rivalries to their advantage. With the paramountcy of autonomy threading through their strategic fabric, Southeast Asian nations face a future where their policy choices today could redefine their global standing for decades to come. Hence, elucidating the detailed technical nuances of these strategies, capturing the economic data, military ambitions, and legislative provisions is seminal to foster a foundational understanding of Southeast Asia's current geopolitical ballet.
Second Layer
As we delve into the challenges and opportunities in bi- and multi-lateral alliances in Southeast Asia, it becomes evident that the region's geopolitical equilibrium is delicately influenced by the dynamic interplay of evolving U.S.-China relations, developments in the South China Sea, and the broader Indo-Pacific strategy. Within this backdrop, Southeast Asian countries are navigating a path to redefine their strategic alliances and economic roles both bilaterally and multilaterally.
The recalibration of U.S.-China relations has emerged as a central axis around which Southeast Asian countries reorient their diplomatic and strategic alignments. Periods of escalated rhetoric and military posturing between the two powers are often offset by intermittent dialogue that suggests a mutual interest in avoiding direct confrontation. The recent engagements between Chinese Communist Party Liaison Department Minister Liu Jianchao and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signal a potential desire for détente. However, it is essential to approach these signs of stability with caution, as they do not completely dispel the ambiguity that shrouds future relations between the two giants.
In the defense sector, regulatory constraints, such as the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and the Wassenaar Arrangement, act as twin chalices from which Southeast Asian nations sip cautiously. While these frameworks dictate the terms of military technology transfer and procurement, the divergence in member states' adherence to them reflects their inclination to either pursue indigenous defense capabilities or seek alignments that allow for more liberal access to advanced military tech. For instance, the Philippines' strategic recalibration of its Visiting Forces Agreement with the U.S. underscores a pivot towards enhanced security ties in response to South China Sea encroachments.
The patchwork of regional defense postures is further complemented by economic stratagems, particularly within the EV sector, as evidenced by China's heavy investments in Thailand and Malaysia. Concurrently, there has been a discernible decrement in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam, declining from $0.7 billion in 2022 to $0.5 billion, marking a significant shift in economic courting. This tapering of U.S. economic presence juxtaposed against the burgeoning Chinese investments introduces a nuanced economic contest in the theater.
Southeast Asian nations, endowed with strategic autonomy, are proactively leveraging this U.S.-China rivalry to catalyze regional initiatives. The investment patterns, skewed towards a green transition, are evident in Vietnam's solar power projects and Indonesia's "Making Indonesia 4.0" roadmap, designed to usher in a high-tech manufacturing renaissance. These initiatives encapsulate an entrepreneurial ethos keen on charting a course towards sustainable and innovative economic futures.
Moreover, the region is becoming a crucible for pioneering economic frameworks, with countries actively participating in the formulation of a South China Sea Code of Conduct, thereby attempting to enshrine a rules-based maritime order. While claimant nations remain ensnared in territorial disputes, the collective pursuit of stability through such measures fosters regional solidarity, seen as a desideratum for the efficacy of ASEAN as a unified bloc.
Within global economic systems, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) looms as a canvas for potential economic benefits and drawbacks. Cumulatively, the nations of Southeast Asia might find themselves at crossroads where they can either embrace the IPEF as a conduit for amplifying their economic prospects or exercise caution in not endorsing aspects that may not align with their regional strategies.
As Southeast Asian countries fortify their trade alliances and recalibrate their security postures, the strategic topography of the region ebbs and flows. The symphony of economic sectors, from digital marketplaces to infrastructural mega-projects, challenges these nations to harness their collective prowess while remaining adept in their individual strategies.
In sum, the pivot of Southeast Asia towards a more assertive and refined role in international power politics and economic discourse shapes the possibilities for new alliance constructs. These evolving dynamics present both a critical need for strategic sagacity in maximizing geopolitical leverage and a reflective lens for introspecting on their economic, diplomatic, and security paradigms. The resulting mosaic of alliances underscored by gains in strategic autonomy, economic diversification, and regional integration elucidates the transformative journey of Southeast Asia towards defining its destiny amidst the great powers of the 21st century.
NA Preparation
Material Facts
In undertaking an analysis of the geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia, it is pivotal to account for the multiplicity of material facts that hold substantial weight in shaping the dynamics of the region. These data points serve as critical indicators of the prevailing conditions and potential trajectories within regional alliances and global economic systems.
Firstly, the strategic incentives provided in Iskandar Malaysia, such as the 15% flat income tax rate for skilled foreign workers, multi-entry visas, and expedited entry from Singapore, constitute significant pull factors in attracting talent and investment. Detailed figures reflecting the extent of talent migration and foreign direct investment in response to these incentives are indicative of the zone’s economic vitality. The measurable impact of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on Johor's development trajectory remains a material concern.
SEZs are pivotal components in regional economies. The variations in success across Southeast Asia, such as the SEZs in Terengganu and Pahang that initially targeted 220,000 jobs by 2020, warrant closer examination. Empirical assessments of job creation outcomes against stated objectives and the associated tariff exemptions can elucidate the effectiveness of such zones. The extent to which they have met these targets reflects not only on the efficacy of the provided incentives but also on the overall competency and foresight of economic planning within those regions.
Country Garden Holdings' financial predicaments complicate understandings of business viability in Malaysia. While the firm faced debt restructuring and financial threats, its Malaysia-based segment reported stability with robust sales. This dichotomy can provide valuable insights into local market conditions, investor sentiments, and regulatory environments that might affect the SEZs' success such as the Special Financial Zone at Forest City.
The political coherence and collective volition of ASEAN member states are foundational to understanding their geopolitical agency and economic assertiveness. ASEAN's collective economic clout, with U.S. investment tallying at US$329 billion, outstripping that from China, Japan, and South Korea combined, provides a substantive foundation for exploring shifting allegiances and strategic calculus within the region. Moreover, the preference of the majority of ASEAN nations towards Beijing despite concerns about its regional influence — with seven out of ten leaning towards China — is integral to comprehending the influences shaping their geopolitical choices and the implications for regional alignments.
Considering the existential threat posed by climate change, material facts concerning the World Meteorological Organization’s announcement regarding the potential breaching of the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming threshold within five years are urgently relevant. This underscores the heightened susceptibility of Southeast Asia to the impacts of climate change. A cohesive regional strategy that integrates sustainable development into the geopolitical and economic narrative is central to navigating the green transition and its attendant opportunities and risks.
The defense postures of individual ASEAN states, from the Philippines’ expanded U.S. base access to Japan’s FOIP initiative, add layers to the regional security dialogue. These efforts may ostensibly diverge from the ASEAN-led security mechanisms and highlight a willingness for strategic diversification in alliance patterns. Moreover, new security arrangements such as the Quad and AUKUS, by presenting alternative frameworks for cooperation, motivate a reassessment of ASEAN’s role in regional geopolitical dynamics.
Singapore's active free trade pursuits, including the recent agreement signed with the Pacific Alliance, indicate the city-state's strategic maneuvering in trade diplomacy. The agreements and their effects on Singapore's economic positioning within the global trade network are substantial, offering Singapore an expanded role as a central node in trans-Pacific economic interactions. These developments have direct implications for regional economic realignment and the potential reframing of alliances within Southeast Asia.
The hedging approaches of Vietnam and the Philippines encapsulate the nuanced balancing act that nations within the region undertake in the face of great power competition. Vietnam’s measured equidistance in foreign policy contrasts with the Philippines’ more pronounced alignment with the United States. These strategic postures are revealing of the converging and diverging national security interests and economic priorities that inform the formation and reformation of bi- and multi-lateral alliances.
In conclusion, the aforementioned material facts pertaining to economic incentives, SEZ performance, corporate financial stability, ASEAN's internal dynamics, environmental pressures, and defense alignments collectively contribute to a detailed and nuanced map of the Southeast Asian geopolitical and economic landscape. They offer the strategic context needed to assess the regional challenges and opportunities faced by Southeast Asian nations in the perpetually evolving theater of bi- and multi-lateral alliances.
Force Catalysts
In the intricate geopolitical fabric of Southeast Asia, the strategic interplay of force catalysts – leadership, resolve, initiative, and entrepreneurship – is crucial in shaping the region's geopolitical and strategic postures, particularly amid the evolving nuances of U.S.-China relations, the multifaceted South China Sea conundrum, and the sweeping Indo-Pacific strategic dynamic. These catalysts' interrelations with domestic political transformations, global economic fluctuations, and nation-states' strategic shifts elucidate emerging opportunities and challenges for regional actors within the broader spectrum of bi- and multi-lateral alliances.
Leadership
Leadership within Southeast Asian nations, characterized by distinct risk propensities and decision-making styles, is pivotal in directing geopolitical and strategic policy trajectories. Current leaders are forging unique diplomatic narratives and domestic policies, reflecting their distinct political cultures and experiential backgrounds. For instance, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo is spearheading a mediating role in regional disputes while championing an ASEAN-centered Indo-Pacific strategy. Simultaneously, Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha aligns multiple foreign direct investments with domestic economic initiatives, such as the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), as part of Thailand's economic strategy to foster innovation and advanced industries. Through a nuanced and detail-oriented examination, we discern the direct correlation between leadership attributes and specific policy decisions shaping regional geopolitics, affirming the profound impact that varying leadership styles can have on inter-state relations and strategic outcomes, including their approach to sovereignty and alliance formations.
Resolve
The resolve demonstrated by Southeast Asian countries to maintain geopolitical composure and uphold regional solidarity amidst domestic volatility and international tensions reveals their strategic fortitude. This concept is visibly instantiated in the "ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific," which sets forth a collaborative vision amidst great power rivalry, and in Vietnam's commitment to the "Blue Economy," emphasizing the sustainable use of maritime resources. This is further exemplified by the Philippines' strategic recalibration of its Visiting Forces Agreement with the U.S. while grappling with South China Sea encroachments. These acts of collective and individual resolve envision a stable, rule-based regional order, even as varying intensities of commitment underscore ASEAN's strategic foresight.
Initiative
Southeast Asian nations exhibit both proactive and responsive initiative, taking independent policy actions and adeptly adapting to external geopolitical currents. The region's capacity to act independently is on display in their responses to novel alliances such as the Quad, regional strategies like ACMECS, and global trade engagements through accords like CPTPP and RCEP. The multifaceted approaches of Southeast Asian countries manifest through a constellation of initiatives that include internal economic reformations, infrastructural development undertakings, such as Indonesia's ambitious plan to relocate its capital city, and proactive engagement in multilateral trade partnerships. This evidences the complex dynamics of initiative as a force catalyst, dictating countries' maneuvers vis-à-vis external opportunities and threats.
Entrepreneurship
Southeast Asian entrepreneurship, as a driver for innovation and progressive economics, stimulates the region's ascent in the global value chain and technological eminence. Indonesia's "Making Indonesia 4.0" and Malaysia's 12MP represent entrepreneurial vigor, channeling aspirations for high-tech manufacturing prowess and sustainable socioeconomic advancement. The green energy initiatives of nations like Vietnam—especially their transition to solar power—demonstrate an entrepreneurial push towards energy independence and climate action goals. In Singapore, the nation's commitment to creating a Smart Nation harnesses entrepreneurship to revolutionize various sectors, including finance, urban living, and the digital market. The entrepreneurship catalyst will serve to negotiate new economic channels, elevate digital connectivity, and instigate shifts in competitive equilibria, ultimately animating regional cooperation schemes.
In prospective analysis, it becomes clear that the nuanced amalgamation of leadership, resolve, initiative, and entrepreneurship will decisively determine Southeast Asian countries' strategic course in redefining their regional and global engagement. Leadership transitions in several nations are poised to induce strategic reconfigurations influencing bilateral and multilateral alliance networks. Resolve, as a national and regional anchor, will dictate navigation through the challenging mire of power politics, with implications for internal unity and geopolitical bearings. Initiative will carve out the region's infrastructural and economic policy landscape, modulating its collective economic narrative within the Indo-Pacific milieu. Entrepreneurship promises to catalyze the region toward advanced technological frontiers and sustainability benchmarks, incentivizing novel bureaus of economic and digital collaboration.
As these force catalysts modulate inter-state dynamics, Southeast Asian nations are anticipated to recalibrate their partnerships and alignments in response to the reshaping global economic and strategic clime. The evolving force catalysts will, therefore, not only incite new strategic endeavors but also manifest expansive opportunities for these countries to sculpt diverse and stratified approaches to their alliances and economic cooperations.
Constraints and Frictions
In assessing the geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia and the impact of evolving U.S.-China relations, one must consider a detailed array of constraints and frictions that can shape the strategic posture and alliances of nations within the region. Each constraint and friction will be examined in terms of its current manifestation and the deeply intertwined nature in which both historical context and potential future dynamics could influence regional alignment and economic opportunities. Coupling these discussions with a nuanced understanding of past events and possible future scenarios will offer a comprehensive net assessment of Southeast Asian bi- and multi-lateral alliances.
Regulatory and Legal Constraints
In the defense sector, stringent control regimes such as the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and the Wassenaar Arrangement impose notable regulatory constraints on Southeast Asian nations. These frameworks not only filter the aspirations of Southeast Asian countries seeking advanced military technology but also streamline their operational capabilities, adherence to compliance, and potential participation in global supply chains. The degree to which these constraints affect regional defense policy and procurement strategy escalates the incentive for indigenous technological development or alternative alliances that may offer technology transfer devoid of equivalent restrictions.
Resource Constraints
Focusing on Vietnam as a case study, the decline in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) manifests as a tangible resource constraint impacting critical sectors such as manufacturing and technology. This reduction in capital inflow necessitates a recalibration in policy where Vietnam may seek to intensify trade relations with alternative economic powers or invest heavily in sectors that can attract diverse international investment, potentially altering its economic alliances and strategic orientation.
Cognitive Constraints
Historical events can predispose national decision-makers to certain cognitive biases such as recency bias, where the latest provocations in the South China Sea by China may unduly weigh on the regional responses more than historical patterns of cooperation. Conversely, loss aversion might cause a heightened sensitivity in Southeast Asian countries to perceived erosions of sovereignty or economic advantage, leading to an overestimation of risks associated with alignment shifts, thus constraining bold strategic repositioning.
Environmental Friction
Environmental changes in Southeast Asia, such as the increased frequency of climate-related natural disasters, create more than just humanitarian crises; they serve as friction that tests existing regional support mechanisms and alliances. Events like widespread flooding or devastating storms necessitate rapid collaborative responses, and the efficiency or lack thereof in these circumstances can be archetypes for revising alliances and bilateral agreements based on shared environmental vulnerabilities and response capacities.
Temporal Dynamics
In considering temporal dynamics, it is essential to recognize how patterns of alignment have evolved from the Cold War era when Southeast Asian nations were often viewed through a bipolar lens to the current fluid, multipolar environment. For example, the gradual estrangement between the U.S. and the Philippines paralleled with China's rising assertiveness has led to fluctuating alignments. An in-depth historical analysis juxtaposed with forward-looking scenarios involving changing U.S. and Chinese foreign policies can elucidate potential future realignments or novel multilateral configurations.
Probabilistic and Scenario-based Approaches
To apply a probabilistic and scenario-based approach, we could envision scenarios ranging from intensified U.S.-China conflict in the South China Sea that pressures ASEAN countries to choose sides, to a détente scenario fostering stronger bi- and multi-lateral trade agreements which Southeast Asian countries could leverage for economic advancement. These scenarios can help map the spectrum of possible futures which can then be overlayed with probability assessments to guide strategic intent and policy formulation.
Iteration and Feedback
Strategic decisions informed by constraints and frictions must inherit an iterative nature, allowing for adjustments as geopolitical dynamics evolve. Continuous monitoring of FDI patterns, technology transfer agreements, and alliance behaviors provides a feedback mechanism that can inform the recalibration of strategies. Building detailed, real-time dashlets of critical metrics such as military expenditures, technological advancements, and commodities trade flows can ensure that the latest intelligence is integrated into the ongoing strategic decision-making process.
In summary, the complex interplay between constraints and frictions, enriched by historically informed and forward-looking analyses within specific Southeast Asian contexts, will uncover the critical nuances that shape these nations' shifting alliances and engagement in the regional and global economic systems. Such an expansive understanding strengthens the net assessment's capability to facilitate strategic thinking that is resilient, agile, and adaptable to an ever-changing geopolitical milieu.
Alliances and Laws
In addressing the challenges and opportunities in bi- and multi-lateral alliances in Southeast Asia in the context of evolving U.S.-China relations, developments in the South China Sea, the Indo-Pacific, and the renegotiation of roles within regional and global economic systems, it is crucial to consider a variety of details provided.
U.S.-China Relations
The complex relationship between the U.S. and China has far-reaching implications for the geopolitical and economic landscape in Southeast Asia. The recent engagements between Chinese and U.S. officials, as noted in the call notes, may signal a pursuit of greater stability and certainty in their bilateral relations. This could impact Southeast Asian countries' alignment as they navigate the challenges posed by the U.S.-China strategic competition. The region may face opportunities to broker its position amidst great power rivalry, reinforcing the necessity for recalibration strategies in regional alliances to hedge against over-dependence on either power.
South China Sea Developments
Increased Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, manifested through territorial claims and military exercises, has heightened tensions and compelled Southeast Asian nations to reconsider their foreign policy and defense postures. The region's countries leverage bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, including ASEAN mechanisms, to address maritime disputes while balancing relations with China and the U.S. The infusion of environmental concerns and sustainable use of marine biological diversity, exemplified by the dialogue on the BBNJ, adds a new dimension to the geopolitics of the region. There is an opportunity for Southeast Asian nations to exercise more significant influence by taking proactive roles in contributing to the establishment of norms and leading discussions on environmental security and regional stability within frameworks such as ASEAN.
Indo-Pacific Strategy
The U.S. shift in focus to the Indo-Pacific, involving security and economic initiatives, presents both challenges and opportunities for ASEAN members. The introduction of platforms like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) necessitates ASEAN's strategic consideration of the potential economic benefits and drawbacks of these partnerships aligned more closely with U.S. interests. The presence of "minilateral" groupings such as the Quad and AUKUS represents a shifting security landscape that Southeast Asian nations must engage with delicately, alongside ASEAN-led security architectures.
Regional and Global Economic Systems
Southeast Asia's crucial role in developing global economic systems is underscored by its rapid economic growth and strategic positioning. The SEZs and the potential for 'passport-free' areas, exemplified by the plans in Iskandar Malaysia, provide novel avenues for increased investment, trade, and infrastructural linkages. These investments and the reshaping of connectivity corridors, like the HSR, could reorient regional economic activity. There are opportunities for these nations to redefine their economic orientation and diversification strategies in light of the increased competition for FDI, the push for sustainable development, and technological innovation.
The discussed elements, particularly U.S.-China relations and regional dynamics in Southeast Asia's security and economic spheres, are embeddable within the Alliances and Laws framework due to their far-reaching strategic interconnections. The established laws and the formation or reformation of alliances play critical roles in framing Southeast Asia's collective capacity to respond to various scenarios, including geopolitical tensions and collaboration opportunities in trade, technology, and environment sectors. The reshaping of these Alliances and adherence to evolving international Laws will influence the strategic decision processes among Southeast Asian nations.
In conclusion, Southeast Asian nations face a complex interplay of external influences and internal dynamics which shape their strategic realignments and participation in regional and global economic systems. The net assessment of this situation involves scrutinizing the intricate details of evolving geopolitical trends while evaluating various scenarios' associated risks and opportunities.
Information
- Iskandar Malaysia is a corridor spanning Johor Bahru, Iskandar Puteri, Pasir Gudang, and Kulai.
- Incentives for businesses include a flat income tax rate of 15% for skilled foreign workers, multiple entry visas, and fast track entry from Singapore.
- SEZs (Special Economic Zones) offer benefits like tariff exemptions on imported manufacturing products and potentially free or low-cost infrastructure, but success varies based on location and skill availability.
- The zone's progress will be updated at the 10th Singapore-Malaysia Leaders' Retreat in Singapore later this year.
- There's no specification if the Special Financial Zone (SFZ) at Forest City is the economic zone discussed with Singapore.
- SFZ's success hinges on cooperation from both Malaysia and Singapore governments.
- Similar SEZ established in 2009 in Terengganu and Pahang targeted 220,000 jobs by 2020 with tax and duty exemptions, yet it's unclear if targets were met.
- Some businesses are skeptical about the viability of SFZ at Forest City due to slow construction and developer's financial issues.
- Country Garden Holdings is facing financial difficulties with a debt restructuring and a 30-day grace period to avoid default.
- However, Country Garden Malaysia is reported to be financially stable with strong sales performance.
- A robust ASEAN is influential in the geopolitical landscape and capable of directing major power competition away from Southeast Asia if it becomes more proactive and assertive.- Early in his term, Biden could commit to the 2021 East Asia Summit, a response to dissatisfaction with Trump's representation by National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien in 2019 and 2020.
- Biden administration might provide economic aid for Southeast Asia's recovery from Covid-19 and engage in vaccine diplomacy.
- Medium-term strategy could include filling the trade gap left by Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
- Biden may consider alternatives to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), such as sectoral agreements on digital trade or medical products.
- Biden's administration aims to align trade policy with strategic objectives and focus on competing fairly rather than solely on trade deficits.
- Southeast Asia desires U.S. presence without major power conflict or feeling neglected; there is ambivalence due to past U.S. actions.
- The Biden administration lacks a clear policy for Southeast Asia, preferring a more reactive approach.
- Kurt Campbell, Biden's assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, suggests that the U.S. and partners could persuade China to accept a competitive but peaceful regional order.
- U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasizes national competitiveness over multinational investment; the "Build Back Better" plan includes national security aspects.
- Annual trade between the U.S. and Asean is worth around US$600 billion; U.S. investment in Asia exceeds China, Japan, and South Korea combined at US$329 billion.
- Despite China's assertiveness, 7 out of 10 ASEAN nations lean towards Beijing; concerns remain over China's regional influence.
- The U.S.'s absence from RCEP and CPTPP impacts its influence in Asia-Pacific trade.
- Southeast Asia attracted a record US$222.5 billion in FDI in 2022; U.S. investments in Vietnam continue, while China invests in the region's EV sector.
- U.S-China competition could influence FDI, potentially detracting from Southeast Asia due to domestic subsidies in the U.S.
- U.S. Commerce Department investigates solar panel companies in Southeast Asia for tariffs circumvention, creating a dilemma for regional firms.
- Southeast Asia could lose US$28 trillion over 50 years without carbon emission mitigation; the green transition offers opportunities despite challenges.
- Vietnam's relations with both the U.S. and China remain vital, as it balances ties with major powers.
- China's investments in Vietnam increase compared to the U.S., showcasing the competition for influence in Southeast Asia.- The WMO announced a likelihood of breaching 1.5 degrees Celsius in global warming within five years.
- Global temperatures are entering "uncharted territory" due to weather patterns and human-induced climate change.
- Southeast Asia faces intensified climate change threats.
- The World faces severe energy shortages, highlighting the need for more than just renewable energy investment.
- A transition from a linear to a circular economy is necessary, especially in Asia, influenced by the COP26 conference and the pandemic.
- Nehru's elitist education may have aliened him from Indian masses and his policies did not notably enhance India's global standing.
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promotes inclusive development and trust in his governance.
- Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's handling of protests versus his stance on India's farmer protests shows perceived Western hypocrisy.
- India maintains a vibrant democracy with regular, free, and fair elections since 1950 and has removed Article 370 from its constitution as it was a "temporary provision."
- Leung Chun-ying stresses the importance of international cooperation for the global economy, and critiques politicizing globalisation.
- Asian economies, especially China, are recovering faster with anticipated positive GDP growth in contrast to negative growth elsewhere.
- China's "dual circulation" strategy involves human capital, logistics, information, finance, and R&D, anchored on technological innovation.
- Singapore is becoming a regional hub for Chinese tech companies, integrating Chinese and Western technologies.
- The Greater Bay Area in China is developing as a significant hi-tech economic hub.
- Collaborative economic initiatives between cities like Chengdu, Hong Kong, and Singapore are emerging but still in preliminary stages.
- Covid-19 offers a reset opportunity for global economic collaboration and diversification for resilience.
- Singapore and Malaysia are enhancing relations through a cross-border economic zone set for a significant project.
- An MOU signed between Singapore and Malaysia aims to facilitate renewable energy cooperation and expedite land checkpoint clearances for the SEZ.
- Proposed "passport-free" travel within the SEZ could have a positive economic multiplier effect.
- The cross-border SEZ could follow the successful model of Shenzhen, China in transforming local economies.
- The SEZ's goals include easing the movement of people, services, and goods, and could benefit multiple industries.
- For the SEZ's success, both governments might offer business incentives, infrastructure improvement, and skilled workers supply.
- The SEZ's focus and scope are yet to be detailed by Singapore authorities, but ASEAN countries have previously used SEZs to boost investment, jobs, and exports.- ASEAN faces challenges in achieving regional stability and economic growth goals.
- The Philippines has expanded US base access due to stalled South China Sea negotiations.
- ASEAN is criticized for a passive approach to regional issues, risking being sidelined by major powers.
- The Quad meeting in Tokyo gathers US, Australia, India, and Japan's foreign ministers to discuss security and economic cooperation against China's assertiveness.
- Japan pushes the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) initiative and discusses the impact of COVID-19.
- Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to debut diplomatically, emphasizing the Japan-US alliance and promoting FOIP.
- US-China relations are tense, involving disputes over trade, technology, and regional influence.
- US and China senior trade officials meet after over a year at the APEC summit.
- US-Singapore relations under review with Singapore's PM Lee visiting the US.
- China opposes increased US interaction with Taiwan, as tensions rise.
- Biden seeks to resume military dialogue with China; trade and independence issues remain unsolved.
- Malaysia's Selangor state leads in economic performance and FDI attraction despite the pandemic.
- Selangor's strategic location and Invest Selangor's support bolster its role as a key investment hub.- Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's former PM, offered to host logistics for the US Seventh Fleet, fearing weakening of East Asian regional balance due to American military withdrawal from Philippine bases.
- The US pursues its interests in Asia-Pacific independently of ASEAN mechanisms.
- The rise of China's economic and military power prompted the US to seek more support to balance China despite spending more on defense.
- The US's military forces are globally dispersed, and China has a geographic advantage in the western Pacific.
- Minilateral groups like the Quad (Australia, Japan, US, India) and AUKUS (Australia, US, UK) emerged as reinforcements of the US alliance system.
- The Quad and AUKUS, being balancing mechanisms, exclude China and initially sparked criticism in Southeast Asia for sidelining ASEAN and not being inclusive.
- Southeast Asia's criticism also stems from the reluctance to offend China and the mistaken belief that ASEAN mechanisms alone can secure regional security.
- America and China have conflicting strategic visions, leading to increased competition and new security mechanisms.
- The "no limits" China-Russia cooperation opposes US-led initiatives.
- Finland and Sweden seek NATO membership, bolstered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and the maritime tracking initiative launched by the US have geopolitical implications related to China.
- The geopolitical landscape includes US alliances, Quad, AUKUS, Japan's re-armament, and other nations' involvement in Indo-Pacific security.
- China proposes multilateral economic and security cooperation with Pacific islands.
- ASEAN's role in shaping great power dynamics in the region faces challenges.
- Singapore signed a free trade agreement with the Pacific Alliance, consisting of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, which has a GDP over US$2 trillion.
- Singaporean PM Lee Hsien Loong marks it a "landmark moment" for partnership with the Pacific Alliance.
- More than 100 Singaporean companies operate in Pacific Alliance countries.
- The Pacific Alliance deal strengthens Singapore's FTA network and enhances market access for Singaporean companies.
- Singapore aims to use the deal to attract more companies from the Pacific Alliance and facilitate regional business opportunities.
- The free trade negotiations with the Pacific Alliance started in 2017.
- Taiwan's ruling and opposition parties balance relations with China and the US amid regional tensions.
- Taiwan seeks to maintain sovereignty and resists China's aim to consider it a renegade province.
- The potential use of force for reunification by China challenges Taiwan's balancing act.
- Taiwanese public opinion favors the US over China, with the youth preferring closer ties to Washington.
- Taiwan faces domestic challenges like cost of living increases, with a 2.95% price hike in 2022, and expensive housing making it difficult for young people to afford homes.
- Taiwanese presidential candidates propose wage increases and price control policies to tackle economic issues.
- China's economic muscle influences Taiwan's economy, as shown by product bans.
- Taiwan strives for new trade agreements to mitigate the economic impact of global power rivalry.
- In China, tightened government regulations impose challenges on private tutoring and other enterprises.
- The changing regulatory landscape affects startup enthusiasm and investment.
- Entrepreneurs in China experience heightened competition and a shift towards industries favored by the government.- Tensions between Washington and Beijing have pushed Chinese investment in Vietnam, with combined investment from China and Hong Kong hitting $8.2 billion in the first 11 months of the year, doubling from the previous year.
- U.S. investment in Vietnam declined to $0.5 billion this year from $0.7 billion in 2022, ranking 10th after Samoa and the Netherlands.
- Bilateral trade between the U.S. and Vietnam decreased due to U.S. cost-of-living crisis and no tariff cuts; Vietnam's exports to the U.S. dropped 15% to $79.25 billion in the first 10 months.
- Vietnam's exports to China grew by 5% to nearly $50 billion in the same period, while imports from China decreased.
- Disputes in the South China Sea and anti-Chinese sentiment in Vietnam, seen in protests like the 2018 demonstration against special economic zones for Chinese firms, strain relations.
- The White House has pledged more investment and easier trade with Vietnam, but materialization has been slow.
- U.S. investors are showing increased interest in Vietnam, but decisions take time to materialize.
- Chinese investment in Vietnam rose to $3.9 billion amid de-risking strategies and China's economic slowdown, which prompted Chinese to look for opportunities abroad.
- Tokyo is becoming an attractive financial hub due to its stability and as a 'not China' alternative.
- Japan's role in regional security is growing, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida fostering closer ties with the Philippines and promoting a trilateral cooperation with the U.S.
- China's military engagements in Southeast Asia aim to foster confidence and promote a China-led security order.
- Southeast Asian nations continue to navigate the U.S.-China rivalry, maintaining a balance and not becoming a proxy for any power.
- The U.S. maintains alliances with Asia-Pacific countries like Japan, seen as necessary for regional security and stability, alongside ASEAN-led security architectures.- Tokyo unlikely to help develop disputed islands without a return commitment, causing impasse with other claimants.
- Relations between Tokyo and Seoul at a 40-year low, little progress on Korean-held Dokdo issue.
- Chinese satellite monitoring increased in 2022 over South and East China seas, including Diaoyu and Spratly Islands, according to China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) blue book.
- PM Lee of Singapore discussed South China Sea issues: multiple claimants, ongoing dialogue, Declaration of Conduct, difficulty drafting binding Code of Conduct.
- PM Lee emphasizes importance of freedom of navigation, international laws, especially UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and peaceful resolution to avoid conflict.
- Singapore’s foreign minister suggested China mediate the Ukraine situation, despite China's close ties with Russia.
- New strategic institutions are emerging in Indo-Pacific (AUKUS, QUAD, Five Eyes), but ASEAN remains central and should bring parties together according to PM Lee.
- Singapore maintains substantial economic ties with China despite global concerns; sees opportunities in China's long-term growth potential.
- Hong Kong's transition impacts its financial markets, and Singapore is open to businesses relocating from Hong Kong but doesn’t benefit from its challenges.
- On China integration in global economy, PM Lee believes in constructive evolution and purposeful engagement rather than expecting China to become a Western-style democracy.
- Adjustments necessary as China’s economic size now rivals the U.S., which should include China having greater space to influence global systems.
- PM Lee rejects the "Beijing whisperer" notion, emphasizing Singapore’s independence in national interests.
- Singapore manages to do business with China by addressing IP theft issues and advocating for trust in international relations.
- Climate concerns: PM Lee worried about climate crisis, acknowledges inadequacy of global mitigation efforts, explains Singapore's mitigation plans aiming for net-zero by mid-century.
- Singapore affected by climate change due to low elevation, and increased focus on energy security, shifts debate away from climate urgency.
- Europe's energy dependence shift post-Russian oil imports doesn't solve the climate problem, nuclear energy unspoken potential part of Europe's path to net-zero.- Indonesians will vote on Feb 14 to choose President Joko Widodo's successor.
- Mr. Prabowo and his running mate, Mr. Gibran Rakabuming Raka, present a long-term development vision entitled "Bersama Indonesia Maju, Menuju Indonesia Emas 2045."
- Financing candidates' programs might affect Indonesia's fiscal balance, which saw a deficit increase during the pandemic – 6.14% in 2020 and 4.65% in 2021, exceeding the legal 3% GDP deficit ceiling.
- The deficit was within limits afterward: 2.35% in 2022 and 1.65% in 2023, equaling about 347.6 trillion rupiah.
- Proposed programs by presidential candidates may stress fiscal position; increments between 200 trillion rupiah and 500 trillion rupiah to annual expenditure risk breaching the 3% deficit ceiling.
- Indonesia could facilitate economic growth by maintaining an average 3% fiscal deficit across five-year government terms.
- Economic growth targets vary among candidates: Mr. Anies aims for 5.5-6.5% (2025-2029), Mr. Prabowo for 6-7%, and Mr. Ganjar for 7.5-8%.
- Realistic GDP growth based on the last decade's performance is projected at 5.5-6.0%.
- A strategic structural transformation is required to achieve higher growth targets, focusing on productivity, investment incentives, and sectoral fiscal expenditure.
- The International Partnership Economic Framework (IPEF) has faced negotiation challenges due to US domestic politics and differing international priorities.
- The IPEF is now vulnerable and potentially cancellable based on domestic US opinion and Congress's financial support; it doesn't significantly affect Southeast Asia due to regional governments' lack of interest in content over securing US commitments.
- Hedging in international relations varies; states maintain neutrality or pursue contradictory strategies for insurance.
- Singapore maintains apparent neutrality by cooperating militarily with both China and the US; however, its defense cooperation with the US suggests a lean towards American interests.
- Malaysia and Singapore participate in the Five Power Defence Arrangements and host foreign units, yet still attempt to balance superpower relations.
- Vietnam and the Philippines present contrasting hedging models; Vietnam maintains a balanced approach without definitive allegiance, while the Philippines faces potential negative consequences for leaning towards the US.
- The Philippines' militarized hedging could provoke Chinese aggression or economic retaliation, whereas Vietnam's "four-nos" policy and balanced relations have prevented overt conflict involvement.
- Southeast Asia is a hedging experimentation field, providing learning opportunities for other regions to avoid being dragged into major power conflicts.
- US President Joe Biden's administration emphasizes a new era in US-Asean relations, aimed at strengthening diplomatic and economic connections while taking regional conditions into account.
- To rebuild influence, the US must work with the regional realities, recognize China's economic influence, and aim not to dominate Southeast Asia but to support its centrality and autonomy.
- Southeast Asia collectively values Asean for national autonomy amid major power competition, seeking not to alienate China, avoid overt anti-China balancing, and remain strategically neutral.
- The US should not try to coerce Southeast Asia to choose sides but maintain a consistent commitment to the region, valuing Asean nations intrinsically.
- Biden's administration considers hosting a special summit and enhancing diplomatic presence in Southeast Asia as a commitment to the region.- Haass and PM Lee discussed mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
- PM Lee admitted Singapore's limitations in determining global mitigation outcomes.
- He emphasized the importance of adaptation, citing a 100-year timeframe to tackle climate challenges with available resources.
- PM Lee mentioned a previous speech to Singaporeans about living with potential sea-level rises, advocating for the construction of polders and dikes, and budgeting S$100 billion over 100 years for these adaptations.
- PM Lee views the 100-year mark not as the end but as a milestone, with climate change impacts continuing for centuries.
- Interest in experimenting with geoengineering was expressed.
- PM Lee would consider pilot projects for geoengineering, seeing it as necessary due to insufficient current technology and international infrastructure.
- Singapore encourages digital cooperation with other countries.
- PM Lee referred to the Digital Economic Partnership Agreement (DEPA) with New Zealand, Chile, and Singapore, inviting the U.S. to consider a similar agreement.
- The DEPA deals with data sharing, storage, and intellectual property issues, being treated separately from traditional Free Trade Agreements.
On Myanmar and sanctions, PM Lee noted:
- Singapore has limited influence over Myanmar's domestic conflicts.
- Singapore's investment in Myanmar is currently unproductive, with stakeholders looking to exit.
- Singaporean banks rigorously monitor Myanmar transactions and file Suspicious Transaction Reports if necessary.
- PM Lee suggested that influencing Myanmar's policies through financial avenues is challenging and spoke of the need for patience and continued engagement.
US Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy:
- Focuses on alliances, military deterrence, and Southeast Asia presence to counter China's influence.
- Includes a larger role for European allies in the Taiwan Strait and beyond, trade links, and an empowered India.
- The strategy is not exclusively China-focused, but provisions are aimed at countering China's economic and military power.
- European powers are seen as vital for maintaining secure maritime routes in the Indo-Pacific.
- Schumer's upcoming China visit aims to improve US-China relations.
- Biden's Asia trips resulted in agreements with India and Vietnam to counteract China's influence.
- G20 agreements initiated by the US include reforms for World Bank and IMF to support developing countries, providing alternatives to China's Belt and Road Initiative.
- US-India collaboration on technology, such as quantum computing and 5G/6G, counters China's tech expansion.
- Investments in Vietnam's semiconductor industry and port security aim to reduce dependence on China and bolster Vietnam's market position.
- Hong Kong's economy contracted due to COVID-19 but eyes future growth with the lifting of restrictions and joining RCEP.
The US faces challenges re-engaging in the region:
- Biden needs new Trade Promotion Authority from Congress to negotiate and expedite free trade agreements by July 1, 2021.
- Congressional approval required for trade agreements is difficult, with historical aversion and potential Senate opposition.
- Joining CPTPP may require negotiations and domestic approval from member countries.
- Canada's Indo-Pacific strategy includes C$2.3 billion in spending to boost military and cybersecurity, addressing China as "disruptive."
- Canada plans to tighten foreign investment rules to protect intellectual property and prevent the takeover of critical mineral supplies by Chinese state-owned enterprises.
- Australia acknowledges Southeast Asia's forecasted economic growth.
- Australian Prime Minister suggests that to keep pace with Southeast Asia's economic potential, trade and investment efforts must intensify.- Jin Liqun, AIIB president, says China's dynamic economic models boost multilateral cooperation amid risks from stagnant global value chain participation.
- US-China tensions rise due to Washington's hardened stance on Beijing's South China Sea claims.
- RCEP may bring opportunities for investment and infrastructure across borders; non-member investors could benefit from simplified regulations.
- Wang Gungwu posits China is justified in strong economic ties with Asean plus three (Japan, South Korea, China), despite concerns over Chinese influence.
- ASEAN relationships provide security in regional interests; Wang suggests the US could leverage these ties more for its interests.
- Southeast Asia has benefited from companies moving from China due to US-China tensions, receiving record FDI of US$222.5 billion in 2022.
- The trend continues in 2023, with US investments in Vietnam, including a US$1.6 billion chip factory by Amkor.
- China invests heavily in Southeast Asia's EV sector, with BYD and Geely's significant investments in Thailand and Malaysia.
- The US and other nations may follow industrial policy to compete with the Inflation Reduction Act's US$369 billion US clean energy investments.
- The US put tariffs of up to 254% on Southeast Asian solar panels; Biden's waiver on retroactive tariffs lasts until June 2024, creating a difficult position for these firms.
- Model by Deloitte predicts Southeast Asia could lose US$28 trillion over 50 years without carbon emission management.
- The region can still leverage competition between superpowers to support its green transition.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping promotes "camaraderie and brotherhood" with Vietnam, emphasizing the importance of bilateral relations.
- Vietnam balances foreign relations with major powers, including the US, China, and Japan.
- Chinese investments in Vietnam increased in contrast to a decline in US investment, partly due to US trade policy.
- China and Hong Kong's combined investment in Vietnam hit $8.2 billion, the biggest investors. US investments dropped to $0.5 billion.
- Vietnam's exports to the US fell by 15%, while exports to China grew by 5%.
- US diplomatic upgrades to Vietnam promised more investments, trade easing.
- US-Chinese Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden acknowledge the need to manage competition and communicate on issues like climate change and terrorism.
- Southeast Asian countries fear the US-China spy balloon saga's potential impact on regional stability.
- Some Chinese manufacturers are relocating to third countries, including Mexico and Vietnam, to maintain US export strength.
- Vietnam's exports to the US primarily consist of clothing, shoes, and electronics.
- China's FDI in Vietnam grew by 94.9% in the year's first nine months.
- Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales indicate a stable US economy boosting Chinese exports.
- At the ASEAN Summit, Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong stressed ASEAN's unity to handle regional challenges.
- Due to ASEAN's model, it has peace internally but struggles to impact member states' affairs, evident in the failure with Myanmar's current junta.
- ASEAN feels pressured by the US-China rivalry and struggles to maintain relevance amid other Indo-Pacific policy frameworks.
- China's third-quarter internet sector investments fell 36.4% to US$1.36 billion year on year.
- The second-quarter investments saw a steeper drop of 70% compared to the previous year.
- The number of investment deals nosedived to 210 in the third quarter, a 54% decline.
- Private sector investments from January to September decreased by 0.6% from last year.
- The private sector's share of total fixed-asset investment fell to 51.3% from 55.1% a year earlier.
- US and Chinese warplanes flew in proximity on a Tuesday as China began a military drill in the South China Sea.
- A US Navy EP-3E and a Chinese Y-8G conducted parallel flights near Taiwan.
- China announced a military exercise in Guangdong province's waters, with no details provided.
- The exercises coincided with the USS Theodore Roosevelt entering the South China Sea through the Bashi Channel.
- The US operation aimed to promote maritime security and freedom of the seas.
- This marked the first such US operation under President Joe Biden's administration.
- The USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Bunker Hill, USS Russell, and USS John Finn were part of the operation.
- At least seven US warplanes supported the operation, including maritime patrol and electronic warfare aircraft.
- China responded by mobilizing 13 planes near the Taiwan Strait, including bombers and fighter jets.
- There are increased fears of accidental clashes between US and Chinese forces in the region.
- Analysts see the military activity as posturing to test the limits of the Biden administration.
- The South China Sea has been a strategic and contentious zone between China and the US, with increased US military activities in the contested waters and China asserting its territorial claims.
- American, Japanese, and Korean leaders to discuss China and shared concerns over Beijing's assertiveness at a Camp David meeting.
- Asean's softened stance on the South China Sea in a recent communique reflects a pragmatic approach to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, avoiding interference with trade relations.
- Japan is involved in territorial disputes with China, Russia, Taiwan, North and South Korea over islands and waters in the East China Sea and Sea of Japan.
- China claims the Diaoyu Islands (Senkakus), with increased coastguard presence challenging Japanese control.
- Taiwan and South Korea also claim the Diaoyu Islands and Dokdo/Takeshima islets, respectively.
- North Korea supports Seoul's claim to Dokdo.
- Russia holds the Southern Kurils, or Northern Territories, with little prospect of returning them to Japan.
- Analysts see no major changes in these territorial disputes' status quo but recognize the risk of minor incidents escalating tensions, particularly over the Diaoyu Islands.- The US and Philippines are expected to discuss issues involving Second Thomas Shoal, Israel-Hamas, and Ukraine according to Connelly.
- Historically, the US alliance system, which includes bilateral military alliances with Japan and other countries, served as a primary security architecture in non-communist Asia-Pacific during the Cold War to deter aggression from communist powers.
- Despite ASEAN-led security mechanisms, Asia-Pacific countries continue to see the US alliance system as crucial for regional security and stability.
- Lee Kuan Yew, ex-PM of Singapore, offered Singapore as a host for the US Seventh Fleet's logistics to maintain the East Asian balance of power after the US military withdrawal from the Philippines.
- The US pursues strategic goals in Asia-Pacific independently of ASEAN-based mechanisms.
- China's rise in economic and military power has led the US to seek more support from allies and led to the formation of "minilaterals" like the Quad (Australia, Japan, India, and the US) and AUKUS (Australia, the US, and the UK).
- Criticisms in Southeast Asia of Quad and AUKUS initially pointed to exclusivity and sidelining ASEAN, reflecting concerns about offending China and visions of ASEAN mechanisms as regional security solutions.
- Increased great power tensions have led to new security mechanisms, with China and Russia forming a 'no limits' cooperation agreement and NATO seeing potential new members with Finland and Sweden seeking NATO membership after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- The US launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and inaugurated the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness in response to the economic competition with China.
- The geopolitical landscape features multiple initiatives: US alliances, Quad, AUKUS, Japan's re-armament, involvement of India, UK, European security in the Indo-Pacific, and Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea's growing links with NATO.
- China is making its own strategic moves like proposing multilateral economic and security cooperation with Pacific islands.
- ASEAN faces challenges in shaping great power relations in Asia-Pacific due to strategic importance and economic potential of the region.
- ASEAN's leverage depends on unity among its member states for balance of influence and power in the region.
- Wealth managers in Asia are increasingly setting up in Dubai, reflecting strong China-Middle East relations, amid a surge in demand for geographical diversification by clients.
- Noah Holdings plans to receive a Dubai business license and cater to Chinese entrepreneurs there.
- The Middle East's attractiveness includes post-COVID recovery, neutrality, ease of business, convenient time zones, tax-free status, and incentives like the "golden visa."
- Hong Kong and Singapore face competition as wealth managers like Lombard Odier, Farro Capital, and Landmark Family Office expand in Dubai to tap into new markets.
- The UAE saw the world's highest millionaire net inflow in 2022 and 4,500 more projected in 2023.
- Wealth management in Dubai is attracting Asia Pacific clients, with the average asset allocation to the Middle East at 1% and some respondents planning to increase it.
- Four structural trends shaping the global economy and Temasek's investment strategy include digitisation, sustainable living, future of consumption, and longer lifespans.
- Temasek fosters a resilient portfolio by embracing cutting-edge technologies like AI and blockchain and establishing ventures through its Temasek Operating System (T-OS).
- Sustainability investments by Temasek span focus areas including food, waste, energy, materials, clean transportation, and the built environment, stressing decarbonisation and eco-friendly solutions.
- COVID-19 has accelerated digital consumption patterns; Singapore's digital economy is expected to grow by 12% to US$22 billion by this year, with further growth in Southeast Asia.
- The ageing global population impacts labor markets and healthcare needs, offering investment opportunities in the "silver economy" and new therapies.- Indian leaders are aware that not opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine could risk their partnerships within the Quad.
- India is in a difficult position, trying to maintain a balance without siding against Russia or its Quad partners.
- The US focus is potentially shifting from China to Russia due to the war in Ukraine.
- Reduced US hostility toward China may be a concern for India, given the recent border clashes and the death of 20 Indian soldiers.
- The security threat from Afghanistan is the highest it has been since the Taliban was last in power 20 years ago.
- China's military buildup, financial support to the Taliban, new relations with Iran, and increased Pakistan-supported militancy in Kashmir pose defensive challenges for India.
- Russia, China, and Iran conducted joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean, adding to the complexity of India's strategic environment.- The DPP in Taiwan insists on dialogue with China but rejects preconditions.
- China demands Taiwan to acknowledge it won't seek formal independence and to accept the 1992 Consensus.
- Dr. Qi Dongtao predicts worsened Taiwan-China relations if Mr. Lai wins Taiwan's election, expecting increased military and economic pressure from Beijing.
- Experts believe Taiwan will continue strengthening ties with Southeast Asia, South Asia, Australia, and New Zealand under the New Southbound Policy to reduce economic dependency on China if Mr. Lai wins.
- Dr. Huang proposes the best case to be a DPP-KMT cooperation in selecting a trusted diplomat for cross-strait dialogue.
- KMT senior officials, including Mr. Ma, have been engaging with Chinese government figures, and if Mr. Hou wins, they would rapidly adapt to hold key positions.
- KMT aims to focus on practical cooperative ties, like trade agreements and international space for Taiwan in public health and the International Civil Aviation Organisation.
- Dr. Huang notes that Southeast Asian governments might feel relieved if KMT wins, avoiding the conflict between China and Taiwan.
- Mr. Hou aims to expand the New Southbound initiative to the Indo-Pacific region.
- Chinese solar companies are expanding manufacturing to Southeast Asia due to geopolitical tensions and for competitive advantages.
- China is extending its influence in international institutions, raising questions about its institutional power.
- China has 32 nationals in leadership roles at key international organizations; three leading UN agencies.
- Despite this, China's elite representation in global bodies is still behind compared to other major economies.
- China, as a major UN donor and economic power, is expected to take on a more significant role, within the clash between Western democracies and China's state-influenced capitalism.
- China's underrepresentation in multilateral institutions is seen as limiting by Chinese scholars.
- The WTO is a focal point for US-China rivalry, with reforms and China's influence as key issues.
- China's impact on the IMF and World Bank is limited, despite a growing presence.
- China's Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank reflect its desire to reshape the international order.
- Sultan Ibrahim has been sworn in as Malaysia's King, succeeding Sultan Abdullah Ahmad Shah.
- Sultan Ibrahim's rule begins amidst Malaysia's political divisions and as Anwar Ibrahim's government faces challenges.
- Sultan Ibrahim has warned Malaysian politicians against engaging in political games.
- Sultan Ibrahim has a reputation for enjoying a luxurious lifestyle and has a significant business portfolio. His family has interests in various sectors including the troubled Forest City development and the Melaka Gateway port project.- Selangor offers a talent pool of 3.6 million multilingual and skilled individuals, beneficial for MNCs targeting regional markets.
- To combat the pandemic and maintain a business-friendly climate, Selangor government implemented initiatives like the POIS program, free state-wide screening, and strategies to minimize costs for manufacturers during work stoppages.
- Measures to support microbusinesses and SMEs include Selangor Advance (for cash flow aid), Selangor E-Bazaar (e-commerce upskilling), and PLATS 2.0 (online marketing collaboration with Grab).
- The initiatives have supported tens of thousands, generating hundreds of millions in ringgit trade to sustain businesses.
- Selangor targets investments in key industries like E&E, life sciences, F&B, transport equipment, and machinery to develop the supply chain and industry ecosystem.
- The Smart Selangor initiative was launched in 2015 to bring technological empowerment.
- The Selangor International Business Summit (SIBS) 2021 is scheduled from October 7-10 to convene the regional business community and officials.
- SIBS will feature F&B, medical supplies, R&D, and product exhibitions; conferences; and business talks.
- Multinational companies (MNCs) operating in China exceed 1 million; over 490 of the world's top 500 companies have invested there.
- The attraction to China by MNCs is due to the long-term market optimism, exemplified by China's 7.9% GDP growth in Q2 2021.
- China's strong consumer base includes 1.4 billion people and a middle class of nearly 400 million.
- Foreign-invested enterprises contribute significantly to China's trade, industrial output, tax revenue, and employ about 13% of the urban workforce.
- The future strategy includes welcoming innovation-driven MNCs and improving the business environment under the "dual circulation" development pattern.
- Proposed improvements comprise the support of opening-up policies, fair treatment of multinational enterprises, implementation of the Foreign Investment Law and trade agreements, protection of intellectual property rights, and industry associations relaying MNC needs.
- Russian and Chinese military leaders criticized the US at the Beijing security forum, voicing concerns over conflict escalation.
- China emphasizes deepening strategic military cooperation with Russia, and, despite tensions, seeks improved military ties with the US.
- With regard to Taiwan, the history of careful management from 1979 to 2017 shifted with Trump's trade war and subsequent US legislators' visits to Taipei, alarming Beijing.
- Responding to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, SCMP op-ed suggests Taiwan should focus on economic challenges rather than provoking China with political statements.
- The US is perceived as ignoring international commitments when convenient, using the Taiwan Relations Act as a pretext to justify arms sales to Taiwan.
- Amid heightened cross-strait tensions, calls for the revival of people-to-people exchanges between mainland China and Taiwan are being considered.
- Content attributions to sources like SCMP, Reuters, Channel News Asia, Economist, Financial Times, and opinions do not reflect those of South China Morning Post Publishers Limited.- 2022 two-way trade between Australia and ASEAN was over A$178 billion (US$113 billion); investment was about $307 billion (US$195 billion).
- Australian Special Envoy for Southeast Asia Nicholas Moore suggests raising awareness for business opportunities between Australia and ASEAN.
- Australian trade and investment have predominantly focused on China, Europe, and the United States, with less awareness of Southeast Asian opportunities.
- Australia aims to increase awareness of Southeast Asian opportunities and what Australia can offer the region.
- The new strategy includes 75 recommendations, 3 of which the Australian government adopted immediately.
- Prime Minister Albanese pledged US$60 million to boost cooperation initiatives with ASEAN, including support teams, business exchange programs, and a young professionals' exchange.
- Recommended annual strategy progress reviews by Australia's foreign and finance ministries.
- Blockages remain in the flow of people and investment between Australia and Southeast Asia; Mr. Moore suggests easing access and recognizing qualifications.
- Australian government urged to ease operations for Southeast Asian businesses and reform the migration system, including visa accessibility.
- Prime Minister Albanese highlighted the importance of ASEAN to Australia's future during the ASEAN summit.
- Australia invited ASEAN leaders to a special summit in Melbourne in 2023 for the 50th anniversary of ASEAN-Australia dialogue relations.
- India maintains a non-alignment and cautious foreign policy, favoring an agile, issues-based approach over values-based partnerships.
- India continues to engage economically with Russia, while Japan, Australia, and the United States impose sanctions.
- The India-Japan strategic partnership has the potential to address global challenges, including the environmental crisis and digital technology impacts.
- India and Japan, leading G20 and G7 respectively in 2023, aim to align efforts to tackle challenges concerning the Global South.
- Japan pledges US$75 billion for Indo-Pacific infrastructure and security assistance.
- Singapore's transition to green energy includes the retraining of oil and gas industry professionals for roles in low-carbon sectors.
- Shell partnered with the Singapore Shell Employees' Union (SSEU) to focus on retraining for net-zero business transition by 2050.
- Mandatory energy management practices and enhanced Energy Conservation Act in Singapore resulted in significant carbon dioxide savings.
- Singapore's Green Plan and carbon pricing mechanisms serve as catalysts for transitioning to low-carbon sectors.
- Carbon pricing in Singapore to grow in importance, aiming to reach US$50 to US$80 to encourage investment in emerging low-carbon technologies.
- Singapore could facilitate setting up a regional carbon offset trading market.
- Seven ASEAN countries appear to lean towards China over the US, reflecting complex regional dynamics.
- The Southeast Asian perspective on China involves acceptance and unease, with a desire for more US presence and less neglect.
- The Biden administration focuses on US national security and competitiveness, hinting at less emphasis on multilateralism.
- US annual trade with ASEAN is around US$600 billion, half of ASEAN's trade with China.
- Despite skepticism, the Biden administration is considering rejoining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
- US investment in Southeast Asia surpasses combined investments from China, Japan, and South Korea at US$329 billion.
- China's Belt and Road Initiative and investments in ASEAN provoke regional anxiety but are continuing to grow.- APT 30 was active around major Asean events, such as the 18th Asean Summit in May 2011, meeting on South China Sea in June 2012, Asean-India Summit in December 2012, and the 22nd Asean Summit in April 2013.
- Naikon APT mined information from 2010 to 2015, targeting high-level agencies in Southeast Asia, correlating with increased tensions in the South China Sea and activities like land reclamation and militarization around Spratly and Paracel islands.
- During this time, reports of swarming and harassment of fishing vessels in Southeast Asian exclusive economic zones increased, and the Philippines initiated proceedings against China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration.
- It is difficult to separate cyber campaigns from geopolitical developments due to their parallel timelines.
- Asean governments refrain from attributing cyber attacks (APTs) to specific actors due to diplomatic sensitivities, despite technical experts linking APTs to regional sources.
- In negotiations on the South China Sea code of conduct, the cyber aspect should not be excluded, considering the changing nature of conflict and the role of technology.
- Key considerations for policymakers include the involvement of non-state actors, hybrid tactics, and the integration of machine learning in conflict systems.
- Cyber activities such as APTs are compared to grey-zone confrontations at sea and could be addressed through national laws, diplomatic protests, and economic measures beyond typical international law.
- The UN's 11 norms of responsible state behavior in cyberspace could serve as a basis for conduct and should be included in the South China Sea code of conduct.
- Asean states need to deliberate on how international law applies to cyberspace and APTs, despite not necessarily publishing legal position papers.
- Asean's chairman's statement, while not publicly released, reportedly contained strong language on the South China Sea dispute.
- The South China Sea dispute involves competing claims and is crucial for global trade and resources, with over US$3 trillion in annual trade and significant fishing and gas reserves.
- The Philippines seeks China's compliance with UNCLOS; however, a 2016 tribunal ruling against China's claims was rejected by Beijing.
- Southeast Asian countries are dealing with the dispute individually and through smaller group arrangements rather than collectively updating Asean for effectiveness.
- The rivalry between the US and China has caused concern among Asean members, with the US reiterating its defense commitment to the Philippines.
- China's domestic pressures and the shift in its diplomatic stance indicate an opportunity for claimant states to negotiate with China.
- Asean defense ministers will meet in Indonesia, discussing regional tensions, with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin attending and conflict in Eastern Europe as well as the South China Sea likely to be addressed.- ASEAN needs to assert its regional leadership in light of escalating US-China tensions and China's territorial claims depicted in its latest national map.
- China's new map has sparked objections from India, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam due to territorial disputes.
- Uncertainty remains whether China will continue to exert influence over the ASEAN region through divide-and-rule tactics amidst its economic challenges.
- Singaporean leader Mr. Lee calls for ASEAN unity and flexibility in response to external influences redefining the region.
- Singapore's Finance Minister Mr. Wong stresses the importance of open economic cooperation and building ties beyond traditional partners to include Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
- Mr. Wong emphasizes the risks of over-diversification and the potential fragmentation of the global economy, in response to the G7 summit's stance on "de-risking" from China.
- In Japan, Mr. Wong highlights the potential for Japan to contribute to sustainability projects in Southeast Asia and encourages deeper Japan-ASEAN security cooperation.
- ASEAN nations like Cambodia, Brunei, and Laos are increasing their regional prominence, with Indonesia showing diplomatic activism on global issues.
- Japan and India are seeing shifts in their regional influence; Japan's traditional trade and investment is declining while India is not living up to its potential.
- Russia is experiencing a decrease in diplomatic influence following its invasion of Ukraine.
- The US Navy in Asia welcomes tighter Japan-Australia military cooperation to counter China's growing influence.
- Japanese Prime Minister Kishida promotes stronger security ties with the Philippines and endorses trilateral cooperation with the US.
- Southeast Asia's rapidly growing internet economy is projected to be worth US$360 billion by 2025, with millennials and Gen Z becoming the predominant consumers by 2030.
- Singapore is pitched as an ideal hub for companies seeking to expand into Southeast Asia due to its strategic location and logistics capabilities.
- At ASEAN-China dialogue, Chinese leaders commit to peaceful relations amidst maritime disputes in the South China Sea and widespread militarization by China.
- The development of a South China Sea code of conduct between China and ASEAN is seen as a positive step towards managing tensions.
- The possibility of US-China cooperation on climate action is identified as an opportunity to show consensus despite broader geopolitical tensions.
- ASEAN's effectiveness is questioned amid cyber threats and rising Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, highlighting the need for regional action.- In 2013, Guangzhou R&F Properties Co from China bought 116 acres of land in Johor Bahru for 4.5 billion ringgit through a deal with the Johor royal family.
- Southeast Asia is growing rapidly and is expected to become the world's fourth-largest economy by 2040.
- Australia's trade and investment with Southeast Asia are considered to be lagging behind the growth of the region's economies.
- Two-way trade between Australia and ASEAN in the past year was worth over A$178 billion (US$113 billion), and investment was about A$307 billion (US$195 billion).
- Awareness of business opportunities between Australia and Southeast Asia needs to be raised, according to Australian Special Envoy Nicholas Moore.
- Australia aims to advance business ties with ASEAN and increase Australian foreign direct investments in the region.
- A strategy with 75 recommendations was proposed to boost cooperation, with three adopted by the Australian government, which pledged US$60 million to deepen cooperation.
- The strategy includes creating teams to support Australian investors in Southeast Asia, setting up a business exchange programme, and a young professionals' exchange.
- The progress of the strategy's implementation will be reviewed annually by Australia’s foreign and finance ministries.
- The Australian government plans to make visa access easier for Southeast Asian businesses and workers.
- Prime Minister Albanese highlighted the importance of ASEAN for Australia's economic future during the ASEAN summit.
- The CPTPP was signed in 2018 by TPP countries excluding the US, and the China-led RCEP became the world's largest trade bloc in 2020.
- Critics argue the US Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) misses an opportunity for market access and excludes Taiwan.
- US security concerns in the region have increased due to China's more aggressive stance.
- The Quad, including Australia, India, Japan, and the US, has evolved to focus on various cooperative efforts including vaccine distribution.
- The US-funded Indonesian maritime training center in Batam aims to strengthen Indonesia's maritime capabilities against Chinese incursion.
- Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to the US emphasizes the solidifying partnership and includes talks about expanding cooperation in defense and technology.
- Modi is expected to meet with Tesla CEO Elon Musk to discuss Tesla's plans for a manufacturing base in India.
- The US values India as a counter to China, despite India not condemning Russia for its actions in Ukraine and increasing Russian oil imports.
- India’s diplomacy faces a balancing act due to long-standing ties with Russia, regional security concerns, and developing ties with western countries like the US.
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