Climate-Defense Nexus: Resilience in Geostrategic Realignment

10th December, 2023

What strategies might states adopt to integrate climate resilience needs within broader geostrategic considerations, such as migration pressures and resource scarcity?

First Layer

Strategic Thesis

States are increasingly recognizing the imperative to realign defense expenditures to address climate resilience needs while contending with the cascading effects on geostrategic positioning, migration flows, and resource allocation. It is projected that states will adopt multi-faceted strategies that integrate technological innovation, proactive policy-making, defense reallocation, and international collaboration to build effective climate resilience, which in turn shapes broader geopolitical dynamics.

Outcome and Justifications

The most likely outcome is a gradual but explicit incorporation of climate resilience into national security and defense frameworks, given the escalating climate-induced challenges that impact state stability. Historically, global military expenditure has surpassed $1.9 trillion, indicating the capacity for significant reallocation to climate strategies without fundamentally compromising security. However, this transition faces fiscal, legislative, and cognitive barriers in practice, necessitating a nuanced transition strategy that accommodates both defense and environmental priorities.

Strategies for Integration of Climate Resilience

Leveraging Dual-Use Defense Technologies

States will explore the dual-use potential of existing defense technologies to serve climate resilience purposes. This includes repurposing reconnaissance satellites for environmental monitoring, adapting military engineering capabilities for constructing climate-resilient infrastructure, and deploying rapid-response forces for disaster relief operations. A proposed Defense Climate Technology Agency (DCTA) may be established, with a mandate to bridge the operational silos between defense and environmental agencies, oversee research and development in dual-use technologies, and facilitate the flow of defense funding toward climate resilience projects.

Policy-Making and Legislative Adaptability

States will adopt new legislative instruments that embed climate resilience within defense policies and budgetary allocations. This includes legislative frameworks that mandate a percentage of the defense budget be allocated to projects directly contributing to climate adaptation and resilience efforts. For example, the enactment of a National Defense and Climate Resilience Act (NDCRA) could set forth stipulations for defense budgets to support climate resilience initiatives, requiring alignment with international standards such as those set by the Paris Agreement. The NDCRA would be established on the principle that long-term national security is inextricably linked to climate stability and would feature legally binding budgetary commitments, redistributing funds from traditional defense lines to resilience-oriented programs, with statutory oversight.

International Collaboration and Consensus-Building

Recognizing the transboundary nature of climate impacts, states will seek to strengthen existing global frameworks and develop new alliances centered around climate resilience. Initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Resilience Collaboration (IPRC) could foster regional partnerships between states with shared climate vulnerabilities and opportunities, focusing on joint investment in clean energy infrastructure, sharing best practices for disaster readiness, and coordinating in humanitarian aid deployment. The IPRC's success would rest on its ability to concretize shared objectives into actionable plans and measurable contributions from its member states, closely monitored by a multilateral resilience assessment task force.

Responding to Migration Pressures and Resource Scarcity

With predictions that climate-induced migration could displace between 44 million to 216 million people by 2050, states must anticipate and prepare for the effects of such demographic shifts on urban development, resource management, and social cohesion. A two-pronged strategy including the augmentation of urban infrastructure to ensure climate resilience and responsiveness, alongside bolstering resource security through investment in technological innovation and conservation strategies, may prove pivotal. A special Multinational Climate Resilience and Migration Committee (MCRMC) may be instituted to forecast migration trends, ready socio-economic systems for profound demographic shifts, and allocate defensive resources effectively in coordination with regional urban development policies and international humanitarian efforts.

Financial Mechanisms and Realignments

The creation of a Global Climate Resilience and Defense Fund (GCRDF), potentially financed by a progressive climate impact tax on major corporate emitters, supports the reallocation of defense spending by segmenting resources for specifically identified adaptation and resilience projects. The fund's operational parameters would include transparent, performance-based distribution mechanisms with significant input from financial experts, climate scientists, and military strategists, coordinating a multifactory analysis model that envisions climate resilience as an intrinsic component of national security.

Adaptation Enablers and Catalysts

States are likely to facilitate innovation enterprises, offer incentives for private-sector climate solutions, and incorporate community-driven climate action as part of strategic security calculus. Public-private partnerships could function as accelerators for both adaptation and resilience-building, fostering a supportive ecosystem for entrepreneurs and innovators to deliver scalable climate solutions.

Specific Impacts and Cascading Effects

Defense Technology and Infrastructure

Projected developments in remote sensing and automation hold the potential to spearhead the military’s efficiency in preemptive disaster management, subsequently enhancing stability in regions prone to climate-induced insecurity. This realignment will not only provide a more robust and versatile defense layout but will also cascade into broader economic sectors by concretizing the defense industry as a leading purveyor and benefactor of sustainable technologies.

Political and Social Dynamics

Emerging migration trends will inevitably incite reshaped political landscapes, demanding policy agility and interdepartmental collaboration. National and regional governments will be compelled to reassess priorities regarding urban development, social services, and cross-border policies, fostering either regional solidarity or instigating new geopolitical rifts predicated largely on adaptational success and resource management efficiency.

Economic Shifts

An intensification of climate-financial paradigms will precipitate realignments in state budgets, where defense allocations may pivot toward resilience structures, potentially invigorating sectors such as renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture, and resilient infrastructure engineering, which in turn, can engender a generative loop, stimulating further economic diversification and stability.

Research and Development

The new fiscal equation favoring defense-to-climate expenditure will galvanize a globalized research and development effort, wherein military-driven innovation seeps into civilian climate mitigation and adaptation technologies, thus enabling states and the private sector to perpetuate a dynamic cycle of technological advancements bolstering overall resilience.

Actionable Insights and Applicable Benchmarks

In light of the above, policymakers must prioritize developing inter-agency frameworks that tie defense readiness not only to immediate threats but also to long-term environmental stability. Comprehensive environmental audits of defense assets should be conducted biennially, evaluated against a set of resilience benchmarks including infrastructure durability, energy sustainability, and disaster response capacity. Financial oversight committees must be instated to ensure the earmarked defense funds for climate initiatives are utilized effectively, with periodic reports to legislative bodies.

Within the international community, a robust protocol should be established for sharing best practices and facilitating cooperative responses to climate-induced security crises. States should engage with relevant international organizations to support the development and endorsement of new treaties or the modification of existing ones to explicitly integrate climate considerations into traditional defense agreements. Such alignments must be supported by a transparent and evidence-based communication strategy to articulate clearly the interdependencies between climate resilience and national security to stakeholders ranging from military personnel to the general populace.

Implementing the outlined strategies will require states to maintain a vigilant, contextually nuanced perspective that accommodates the plurality of future scenarios induced by the interplay of climate resilience imperatives with defense considerations. The dynamics of global emissions, defense capability expectations, and the overarching aim to ensure geostrategic stability will inform a dynamic and proactive policy landscape, one that supports the resilient evolution of nation-states in a climate-centric world order.

Second Layer

Strategic Imperatives and Defense-Climate Synergy

Recognizing the essentiality of climate resilience within the scope of national security, states will be impelled to shepherd resources towards adaptive strategies that align with a broader geostrategic framework. The redirection of defense expenditure to climate resilience needs to be underpinned by empirical and strategic evaluation, ensuring a conscientious equilibrium between entrenched defense postures and emergent environmental imperatives.

Reallocation Analysis and Defense Budget Evaluation

An audit of global defense expenditure reveals a discretionary margin conducive to reallocation without fundamentally compromising operational readiness. Preliminary figures suggest approximately 5-10% of current defense budgets could be redirected towards climate resilience interventions with minimal impact on short-term defense capabilities, as defense spending has traditionally incorporated sizable contingencies for unforeseen exigencies. This reallocation would necessitate a rigorous cost-benefit analysis to ensure that military readiness is not undermined. Specifically, the $1.9 trillion global military expenditure, as reported by SIPRI, implies a potential $95-$190 billion fiscal space to be channeled into climate resilience.

Defense Climate Technology Agency (DCTA)

The proposed DCTA would be established with an initial capital outlay of $2 billion, drawn from the redirected defense funds, equipped to facilitate the translation of military technology innovations into climate resilience applications. With a headcount cap of 200 personnel for strategic management and oversight, the agency would prioritize projects pertinent to climate monitoring, forecasting, and infrastructure retrofitting. The DCTA's mandate would evolve to prioritize developments in climate-relevant military technologies, such as retrofitting heavy-lift aircraft for rapid disaster response capabilities.

National Defense and Climate Resilience Act (NDCRA)

The NDCRA would serve as a legislative cornerstone, mandating that a minimum of 5% of national defense budgets be earmarked for direct climate resilience initiatives. It would build upon precedents set by similar legislative efforts that intertwine security with environmental considerations, such as the U.S. NDAA, which has included provisions related to climate and security since 2018. This Act would also introduce mechanisms for inter-agency collaboration, such as the compulsory formation of joint military-environmental task forces to oversee the integrated implementation of resilience measures, and the establishment of a congressional watchdog body to review and assess the concerted utilization of allocated funds.

Indo-Pacific Resilience Collaboration (IPRC)

Concerns regarding geopolitical conflicts hindering the establishment of IPRC are addressed by the introduction of neutrality clauses and shared baseline agreements focusing on apolitical and universally acknowledged climate resilience objectives. Acknowledging current frictions, this multilateral body would serve as a forum for dialogue, commitment tracking, and focused action in realms where consensus on climate imperatives can be secured.

Global Climate Resilience and Defense Fund (GCRDF)

The explicit financing framework for the GCRDF would involve a progressive tiered taxation system on GHG emissions by corporations, which are responsible for a significant share of global carbon output. Beyond the scope of sovereign state funding, these corporate contributions would be leveraged alongside international monetary support to ensure an equitable distribution of climate resilience financing in accordance with the "polluter pays" principle. Projections for the initial sum are estimated at $50 billion annually. The fund's operational dynamics would be subject to regular audits and its structure would be designed to ensure fluidity to scale up contributions in alignment with global emission trajectories and defense spending fluxes.

Adaptation Enablers via Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

Policies encouraging private investment in climate resilience and adaptation measures, demonstrated through tax incentives and direct subsidies, should be aligned with strategic security analyses. For instance, urban centers threatened by rising sea levels should be prioritized for investments in innovation related to amphibious urban infrastructure and water management technologies. This falls within the realm of public-private resilience building, showcasing how strategic security considerations need not be nullified but rather complemented and enhanced through targeted climate action initiatives.

Specific Impact Analysis and Geopolitical Consequences

Defense Technology and Dual-Purpose Applications

The transitioning into dual-purpose applications of defense technology should be structured to not just complement existing military capabilities but to augment strategic leverage. For instance, leveraging drone technology in both reconnaissance and high-resolution environmental mapping signifies the kind of symbiotic capabilities that can offer advantages in geostrategic positioning as well as provide nations with a robust climate resilience toolkit.

Reallocation Impact on National Budgets

A target of a 5% reallocation should not be rendered arbitrarily across all nation-states. Instead, an individualized assessment of defense spending efficiency is critical. Establishing a Global Defense Budget Reallocation Oversight Council (GDBROC) would provide states with tailored reallocation models, factoring their specific defense efficiency indices, threat perceptions, and climate vulnerabilities to work out an optimized redistribution of budgets.

Climate-Responder Corps

We propose the creation of a 'Climate-Responder Corps' (CRC), a rapid deployment force trained explicitly for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in climate catastrophes. This will consolidate military capabilities with environmental crisis management, thereby significantly reducing the impact of climate-induced disruptions on geostrategic stability and human security.

Actionable Milestones for Climate Resilience Integration

To operationalize these strategies with clarity, the following time-bound priorities and milestones are recommended:

Short-term (1-2 years): Establishment of the DCTA, finalization of NDCRA draft legislation, and formation of the initial structure for GCRDF funding mechanisms.

Medium-term (3-5 years): Implementation of NDCRA in leading defense-spenders, operationalization of the first CRC unit, and effective allocation of the GCRDF for high-priority climate resilience projects.

Long-term (6-10 years): Scaling and internationalization of the CRC, alignment of majority of national defense budgets with NDCRA-type legislation, and establishment of IPRC as a key platform for resilience and adaptation discourse.

Revolutionizing Adaptation Paradigms

Counter-factual analysis underscores the necessity for dynamic re-thinking in the formulation of geopolitical alliances. We envision a Future Climate Stability Index (FCSI), a predictive tool integrating military spend data with environmental resilience metrics to redefine how states perceive 'security' in an unprecedented climate-challenged era. This indexing would incentivize states to derive hard security benefits from proactive climate action, quite possibly reshaping traditional alliances and fostering new forms of collaboration centered around ecological stability as the pivot for geopolitical influence.

NA Preparation

Material Facts

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Measurement Reporting Verification (MRV) Framework

NDCs are pivotal to the Paris Agreement's implementation, engaging states in a progressive enhancement of climate action promises every five years. Specific to the MRV framework is its critical role in ensuring methodological rigor, transparency, and comparability of climate action across states. It enables the assessment of progress toward Nationally Determined Contributions through quantified information on GHG inventories, adherence to reporting guidelines, and clarity on actions taken. The MRV system is augmented by technologies such as remote sensing for land-use change monitoring, machine learning algorithms for data analysis, and improved data-sharing platforms that broaden the scope and precision of climate-related data. The next update cycle in 2025 will provide further reflection on states' alignments with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, which the existing NDCs, as they currently stand, will not suffice.

Climate-induced Migration Estimates

Quantifying the local and regional impact of climate-induced migration is complex. The World Bank emphasizes the wide range of potential internal displacement, varying from 44 million to 216 million by 2050, which indicates substantial pressure on urban infrastructures and resource management capacities. Migration patterns in response to climate stressors necessitate strategies like infrastructure reinforcement, proactive urban planning, and inclusive housing policies. The necessity to forecast population movements and to integrate these data into broader adaptation strategies is made evident by Bangladesh, a locus of climate migration innovation, with its extensive measures to protect against climate-induced displacement, thus setting a benchmark for other states.

Defense Strategy Integration with Climate Data

The substantial global defense spending, surpassing $1.9 trillion as reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), highlights the exigency to align defense outlays with climate adaptation requirements. The U.S. Department of Defense recognizes climate change as a critical threat multiplier, integrating sustainability measures, such as utilizing renewable energy on bases, adopting electric and hybrid vehicle fleets, and risk mapping for infrastructural vulnerabilities, evidencing the embryonic stage of what could eventually transform military procurement and capacity-building exercises into instruments of environmental resilience and climate-smart practices.

International Adaptation Finance Shortfall

Deliberations at COP28 focus on the operationalization of loss and damage funds, which have broader implications beyond the realm of climate governance. These funds could reroute portions of international spending, historically oriented towards defense, into climate change adaptation and resilience—essentially a pivot from military to environmental security. This financial pivot is required given the prominent gap identified by the UN Environment Programme, which anticipates global yearly adaptation costs for developing countries to be between $140 billion and $300 billion by 2030, while noting current investment levels of $46 billion.

Geopolitical Context and Material Resource Scarcity

Widespread severe water scarcity impacts over 2 billion people globally, figuring prominently in state strategic calculations. Singapore's leadership in water technology and climate investment is a notable instance of how states are incorporating resource management strategies into their climate adaptation plans. The link between water scarcity and national security becomes paramount when considering the geopolitical undercurrents of resource distribution and access, implicating defense outlays and initiating shifts that could foster or hinder regional stability.

Geostrategic Alliance Shifts and Adaptation Spending

Transactional politics reshape traditional alliance systems with states such as Brazil, India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia manifesting through diverse trade and arms relationships. Their involvement in securing critical supply chains for minerals vital for renewable energy technologies demonstrates a nascent convergence of national security prerogatives with climate resilience strategies. These geopolitical transactions weigh heavily on the strategic allocation of defense and adaptation expenditure, suggesting a potential realignment in light of resource acquisition, technological competition, and climate imperatives.

Climate Action in the Asia Pacific

As a focal point of global emissions and climate action, the Asia Pacific with dense population centers is proactively crafting a unified response via the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, evident in leveraging clean energy and supply chain diversification as dual-purpose goals. Climate cooperation in this region is emblematic of how environmental strategies can be inseparably bound to economic and security goals, with Singapore emerging as a key proponent of climate adaptive measures and regional sustainable development.

This detailed rendering of Material Facts provides a meticulously curated array of empirical data points, which collectively deliver a nuanced and multifaceted basis for appraising the complex dynamics at the nexus of defense reorientation and climate change adaptation within the ever-evolving geostrategic landscape. This considered approach ensures that each fact is contextualized for its relevance to the strategic assessment pertaining to the net realignment of national defense and climate expenditures in the face of rising emissions and the broader strategical integration of climate resilience considerations.

Force Catalysts

Leadership

Leadership as a force catalyst in the Net Assessment Framework is crucial in determining state behavior in response to climate change and its strategic implications. This pertains not only to the ability to set ambitious targets but also to actualize them through coherent strategies and outcomes. A rigorous exploration of leadership can reveal how certain decision-making styles are tied to the development and promotion of adaptation and resilience against the rising threats posed by climate change.

Historically, the disposition of various heads of state and policymakers has had profound impacts on national and international climate policies. Individuals like Ban Ki-moon, former Secretary-General of the United Nations, exemplified transformational leadership by catalyzing global response to climate change, evidenced by his initiative in the formation of the Paris Agreement. In contrast, the lack of leadership commitment is discernible in instances like the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration, reflecting a stark variance in leadership focus and its ensuing policy redirections.

Analyzing the individual characteristics of leaders, such as educational backgrounds in environmental sciences or economics, prior policy stances on sustainability, and psychological profiles including approaches to risk and innovation, demonstrate the intricate linkages between personal attributes and leadership outputs. For example, the educational background of a leader in sustainable development or their prior engagement in environmental policymaking can lead to a predisposition towards proactive climate strategies, as opposed to leaders whose expertise lies primarily in other domains.

Resolve

Resolve, as manifested in the commitment to long-term climate strategies, is essential for implementing adaptation and resilience measures. Polities with high levels of resolve push through structural changes and incentivize innovation in climate resilience despite potential short-term economic costs or political opposition. Examples include the EU's firm stance on phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, despite the economic and political backlash, and island nations like the Maldives lobbying for strong global action, reflecting their resolve due to existential threats.

Examining historical and societal norms that shape resolve, we can also consider the role of public opinion and grassroots movements in driving policy. For instance, the successful lobbying of climate action groups in Germany resulted in the acceleration of the Energiewende, a comprehensive policy shift toward renewable energy.

Initiative

Initiative, reflecting the capacity of national governments and institutions to preemptively address climate challenges, is evidenced by responsive and revelatory actions. The implementation of Singapore's Green Plan 2030, which includes nature-based coastal protections, reflects an assertive initiating approach, contrasting with more reactive nations that may enact changes in the wake of disaster without anticipating future threats.

Through a Net Assessment lens, examining why some nations exhibit higher initiative levels compared to others reveals the influence of variables such as political stability, economic resources, and public-sector innovation. The initiative is measurable not just by the inception of programs but by continuous progress tracking and the willingness to adapt and recalibrate approaches, as is the case in Singapore's emergent green bond markets and Hong Kong's infused capital into climate resilience via their green bond initiative.

Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship in the context of Net Assessment relates to the identification and capitalization on new opportunities created by climate changes, such as the development of new industries in renewable energy, climate finance, and sustainable infrastructure. The force catalyst acknowledges industry's role in driving technological breakthroughs and market solutions that can underpin national strategies for adaptation and resilience.

Historic and predictive analyses of entrepreneurial action, such as that of Elon Musk's Tesla Inc., illustrate the potential to redefine sectors and influence national energy policies, possibly also impacting broader strategic considerations, including economic security and trade alignments.

Incorporating innovative financing mechanisms in climate action, evident through Venture Capital investments in clean technology startups, acts as a testimony to the market's entrepreneurial adaptation to the emergent imperatives of climate change. An entrepreneurial approach not only reflects in the engaging of corporate ingenuity but also in the strategic policy initiatives that encourage such engagements, as seen in the European Union's measures to finance climate resilience projects through the European Fund for Strategic Investments.

Integration of Force Catalysts in Strategic Net Assessment

The synthesis of these force catalysts provides a comprehensive approach to the Net Assessment of a state's capacity for adaptation and resilience in the face of climate change. It requires a detailed examination of not just the strategies but also the catalysts responsible for those strategies. When these catalysts are assessed in conjunction with concrete actions – for instance, Singapore's commitment to net-zero emissions, underpinned by leadership-driven, firm initiatives, and incentivized by smart entrepreneurial market shifts – a dynamic blueprint emerges. This blueprint can inform predictions and guide policy interventions by aligning them with the evolving geopolitical and climatic reality.

These catalysts, each with their uniqueness and interdependencies, pave the way for an analytical framework where long-term implications of climate-induced stresses on human security, migration, and resource scarcity are rigorously analyzed and anticipated. It's through the discerning evaluation of leadership, resolve, initiative, and entrepreneurship that we can predict and construct the stature of nation-states in an increasingly climate-vulnerable global order.

Constraints and Frictions

Precision and Specificity

Epistemic Constraints

Conflicting international standards related to Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) frameworks are a key epistemic constraint. For instance, while the UNFCCC has standardized guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, variations may arise in country-specific calculations and reporting due to different interpretations and applications of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies. To achieve standardization, I specifically propose the creation of an International Climate Assessment Synthesis Taskforce (ICAST) that would work towards harmonization of data collection, processing, and reporting standards, leveraging best practices from existing frameworks such as the IPCC guidelines and the Enhanced Transparency Framework under the Paris Agreement.

Resource Constraints

The concentration of emissions within a select group of multinational corporations indicates an imbalance in who primarily contributes to climate change versus who shoulders the costs for adaptation and resilience. A detailed analysis of the entities responsible reveals that the top 20 fossil fuel companies contribute to more than a third of all energy-related carbon dioxide and methane worldwide, as identified in a 2019 report from The Climate Accountability Institute. In terms of reallocating defense spending for climate resilience, I then propose a graduated climate impact tax on these corporations, earmarked specifically for an international 'Climate Resilience and Defense Fund', which ensures that defense expenditure reallocation does not compromise national security imperatives.

Regulatory and Legal Constraints

Strategies for the integration of climate and defense policy must contend with various legal frameworks, including the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in the United States. A closer reading of the NDAA reveals that provisions exist for the Department of Defense to engage in climate resilience planning, so a legal mechanism I propose is the Defense Climate Resilience and Preparedness Act, which would require concrete alignment of climate resilience efforts with broader defense priorities and enable smoother integration of climate policy considerations into defense spending allocations.

Contextual Relevance

Human Friction

Examining the link between migration, geostrategy, and defense realignment, we can pinpoint specific geopolitical hotspots. For instance, as the World Bank forecasts a range of 44 million to 216 million people could be internally displaced due to climate change by 2050, the rise in displaced populations might necessitate changes in regional defense strategies. It becomes evident that states will have to reallocate financial and logistical support towards humanitarian aid and border security in anticipation of mass migration flows, such as those expected in climate-vulnerable regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In doing so, a binary designation of funding for 'defense' versus 'humanitarian' needs could be counterproductive and I recommend a more fluid budgeting approach to enhance adaptive capacity in these sectors.

Analytical Depth

Cognitive Constraints

In the example of U.S.-China tensions, a comprehensive analysis reveals that foundational issues such as ideological differences, competition for technological supremacy, and disputes over influence in the South China Sea are exacerbating conflicts that significantly impact cooperative climate and defense strategizing. The impact on climate collaboration specifically could involve a reduction in joint research initiatives and a bifurcation of global climate efforts. I recommend the establishment of a dedicated bilateral 'Climate Security Task Force' that operates independently of broader political tensions and focuses on low-hanging fruits such as joint clean energy research or coordination in third-party capacity building in less developed regions to mitigate cognitive constraints.

Evidence and Example Integration

Social and Cultural Constraints

The Cuban food crisis is indicative of how complex social and national security issues can intertwine with climate action. The shrinking agricultural outputs and economic sanctions contribute to a scarcity of goods, elevating national security concerns and creating an environment resistant to climate-related investment. By integrating the Cuban case study with data demonstrating a direct decline in agricultural outputs due to increased sanctions and reduced imports (as reported by the Cuban government), we gain insights into how similar scenarios could affect other nation-states' priorities toward climate and defense spending. The evidence suggests the need for an international safety net fund, possibly through the UN's Green Climate Fund, earmarked for nations undergoing economic turmoil to ensure that climate resilience measures are not sidelined during times of crisis.

Temporal Dynamics

Temporal Constraints

The discrepancy between the electoral timeline and the long-term exigencies of climate change represents a significant temporal constraint. As climate issues require commitments beyond the scope of the usual 4-8 year political cycles seen in many countries, historical patterns demonstrate fluctuating prioritization of climate issues depending on the administration in power. This fluctuation suggests that embedding climate considerations into mechanisms less susceptible to political changes, such as through statutory climate funds or binding international agreements like the Paris Agreement, would create a more stable and predictable trajectory for the reallocation of resources towards climate resilience and adaptation irrespective of short-term political dynamics.

Probabilistic and Scenario-based Approaches

Probabilistic Approach

By developing more granular scenarios, we can envisage a high-confidence scenario where China and America manage to compartmentalize their geopolitical competition and collaborate on specific climate resilience projects. Detailed trigger points could include mutual interests in disaster response frameworks or managing cross-border environmental crises. The probability of this scenario could increase with the advent of multilateral frameworks allowing more stakeholders to contribute like the Global Alliances on Climate-Smart Technologies, decreasing the bilateral political friction. On the other end, a low-probability but high-impact scenario might involve a complete severance of China-America climate collaborations following a military escalation in the South China Sea, leading to widespread destabilization of international climate efforts.

Iteration and Feedback

Feedback Mechanisms

In terms of enhancing feedback mechanisms, an existing model that could be built upon is the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP), which provides an iterative process for improving climate models. Adapting the CMIP's norm of frequent iterations, I propose the establishment of a 'Strategic Climate and Defense Review Panel' composed of experts from both fields. This panel would convene bi-annually, equipped with a mandate to assess ongoing strategies and incorporate the latest climate modeling and defense budgetary data. The feedback procedure would include a set criterion on when and how to incorporate new information into the realignment process: for example, an update in emissions projections or a major geopolitical event triggering an immediate reassessment of priorities

In-depth analysis considering the above will provide nuanced insights to policymakers, guiding them toward strategic recalibrations that are cohesive, evidence-based, and future-proofed against the evolving dynamics of the intertwined fields of global defense and climate resilience.

Alliances and Laws

- Paris Agreement (2015)

- Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

- UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)

- Global Stocktake at COP28

- Singapore's Sustainability Action Package for Southeast Asia

- Article 6 of the Paris Agreement regarding international carbon markets

- Loss and Damage fund at COP28

- BRIC's (Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities) climate risk reduction funding

- EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities

- ADB (Asian Development Bank) funding for climate-resilient infrastructure

- Insurance Development Forum's risk modeling platform

- Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)

- Sharm El-Sheikh Adaptation Agenda

- Asia-Pacific's role in global climate action

- IF-CAP (Infrastructure for Climate Action Program)

- The V20 (Vulnerable Twenty) group's financial concerns

- Green bonds initiatives and their standards

- Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)

- Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

- ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area

- AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) climate financing

- Geothermal Energy Research and Development Act of 2020 (Singapore)

- COP26 agreements and initiatives

- COP27 commitments and actions

- GreenA Consultants' decarbonization strategies

- Public-private partnerships in ASEAN for disaster resilience

- Singapore's Climate Action Package

- Singapore’s Green Plan 2030

- MINDEF (Ministry of Defence Singapore) and SAF (Singapore Armed Forces) environmental policies

- NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) defense emission reductions

- Indo-Pacific defense and humanitarian agreements (e.g., US, Australia, Japan)

- EU military aid initiatives

- Climate Impact X (CIX) carbon services and trading

- Green sovereign bonds (e.g., Britain, Colombia, Spain, Germany, EU)

- The Global Risk Modelling Alliance

- Singapore-Rwanda MOU on climate change collaboration

- COP28 UAE Declaration for climate-resilient health systems

- Singapore's commitment and pledge at COP27 for net-zero emissions by 2050

- HSBC’s Climate Solutions Partnership

- Race to Resilience campaign

Information

- 2030 NDCs and LEDS review for net zero emissions; formal LEDS revisions post stakeholder consultations

- Target: 80% reduction in land transport emissions from 2016 levels by 2050

- Initiatives: Accelerate EV-ready HDB towns by 2025, electrify public bus and taxi fleets by 2030

- Business support for energy-efficiency projects; investment in water tech and waste recovery

- Cuban food shortage crisis caused by sanctions, currency issues, tourism decline, remittances drop, agricultural policy

- Cuban government’s response: optimize dollar usage, reduce imports, enforce quarantine fees

- Challenges: Farmers face production issues; population discontent affects national security

- Henry Kissinger on U.S.-China relations: Acknowledges competition, AI's national security role, need for diplomacy to prevent conflict, understanding China's aspirations, hope for a shared rules-based order

- Geothermal energy in Singapore: Engineer Anurag Chidire studies feasibility considering costs, social, environmental impacts, explores underground landscape

- China-America climate collaboration at COP 27 to restart dialogue, focus on coal, deforestation, methane emissions; expectations for ongoing talks post-COP 27, challenges from domestic pressures, tech restrictions, geopolitical tensions

- Climate-induced migration in Niger and Bangladesh: Internal displacement, World Bank forecasts 44m-216m displaced by 2050, urban migration benefits, coastal area risks, policy adaptations needed

- NRC (No Relevant Content) response for non-related queries- Japan intervenes strategically in rare earths and supports carmakers in battery supply chains; Tesla signs cobalt mining agreements.

- Controversies and risks with government support for mining projects abroad.

- Potential increased U.S. involvement in critical mineral supply chains.

- China's national climate strategy includes creating a "climate-resilient society" by 2035.

- The UN warns that resource scarcity will cause hardship as the population reaches 8 billion.

- Over 2 billion people lack safe drinking water; 4 billion face severe water scarcity annually.

- Singapore pursues net-zero emissions and invests in water technology.

- The Economist Group aims to cut emissions by 25% by 2025 and 50% by 2030; net-zero by 2045.

- Financial regulators concerned about climate risk to stability; banks conduct stress tests.

- 2022 Global Food Security Index shows challenges; European economies most secure.

- GreenA Consultants, Schneider Electric, DBS Bank work on decarbonization strategies.

- Political scientist Josh Busby suggests strategies for climate resilience.

- Royal Dutch Shell sets emission reduction targets and plans lobbying and emission reviews.

- Hong Kong needs plans for climate resilience and decarbonization of energy and transport.

- Hong Kong property companies create plans for extreme weather adaptation.

- Singapore addresses weather challenges and signs an MOU with Rwanda at COP28.

- Singapore employs coastal protection strategies with environmental sensitivity.

- COP26 emphasizes coal phase-down, improved national plans, and aid for poorer countries.

- Strategies for addressing resource scarcity are interconnected with climate change.

- Technology advancements contribute to environmental sustainability and resource efficiency.

- Singapore diversifies rice import sources, using stockpiling for scarcity management.

- Singapore Food Agency promotes diversification and local produce.

- Water scarcity tackled through innovation, infrastructure, investment, and education.

- Pacific Islands accept Chinese assistance; not as wary as the West.

- Pacific states reconsider U.S. agreements, affecting geostrategy and resilience.

- NRC (No Relevant Content) returned for queries on "geostrategic climate resilience" and specifics of measurement reporting verification in climate agreements.

- Chinese government environmental standards align with reporting aspects of climate agreements.

- Climate Impact X (CIX) discusses carbon services and trading in Singapore.

- Hong Kong plays a key role in the green bond market for climate resilience projects.

- AIIB aims for 50% of annual financing for climate projects by 2025, reaching US$50 billion by 2030.

- Concerns over the Paris Agreement and United Nations warnings about global warming.

- COP28 climate discussions include fossil fuel phase-down and nature conservation.

- Investment opportunities highlighted in climate adaptation and resilience funds.

- Jem Bendell's "deep adaptation" concept stimulates debates over wealthier nations' resistance to climate costs.

- Economic impacts of climate change drive migration; policy innovation needed for disaster management.

- FT's dashboard offers transparency on emissions targets and renewable energy progress.

- Current NDCs imply a temperature rise up to 2.9°C by 2100; financing challenges persist.

- Paris Agreement outlines objectives, including NDC provisions and a regular global stocktake.

- UNFCCC negotiations discuss the difficulty in reaching the 1.5ºC target, impacted by COVID-19 emissions reduction plans.

- Indian diaspora achievements include strong home country ties and success in global top jobs.

- Indian diaspora's influence on politics includes contributions and impact on India-West relations.

- Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupts global food systems, affecting supplies and prices.

- Climate-related issues reported at U.S. military sites, affecting operations.

- COP26 spotlights community adaptation to climate stress and adaptation funding concerns.

- Escalating global water crisis linked to climate change and adaptations strategies explored.

- Public policy importance for adaptation, financial support for agriculture affected by climate change.

- Eurasian integration influenced by Russia-China relations and shifting trade routes.

- Central Asia's infrastructure development as part of China's trade diversification strategy.

- Singapore sets ambitious emissions reduction targets and invests in climate strategies.

- Trump administration policies may impact U.S. coal use and climate mitigation efforts.

- The poorest countries seek climate change financing, compensation, and energy transition support.

- India's foreign policy focuses on U.S. relations, maintains ties with Russia, and aims to balance international relations.

- G7 discussions on Ukraine cover long-term support and security guarantees.

- Global defense spending increases; some countries meet 2% GDP defense spending target.

- Singaporean MINDEF and SAF take measures to reduce environmental impact.

- Department of Defense report on climate challenges at military sites; droughts and heatwaves affect operations.

- Connection between climate change and internal displacement highlighted; advanced planning necessary.

- The EPA's analysis of electric prices and emission reductions under the Trump administration's ACE rule.

- The Economist Group has sustainability goals including emission reduction targets and green initiatives.

- Singapore's Climate Impact X to boost carbon markets; Singapore aims for net-zero by mid-century.

- NATO and the British Ministry of Defence focus on reducing military carbon emissions.

- Issues discussed in emissions reporting, including Scope One, Two, and Three emissions.

- Carbon offsets and ESG data are crucial for sustainability analysis and green revenue.

- Singapore invests in climate adaptation, with significant spending on coastal protection.

- COP28 will focus on a global stocktake of emissions reduction; triple renewable capacity needed by 2030.

- The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework includes Singapore addressing clean energy, supply chains, and anti-corruption.

- Asia Pacific is central to global climate action due to population size and emissions.

- The ADB's financing initiative aims to support emission reduction and resilient infrastructure.

- Articles lack specific data on Singapore's adaptation resilience measures and defense climate spending; NRC declared.

- Increased international defense budgets noted; effects of Western sanctions on Eurasian economic ties detailed.

- Eurasian Economic Union's purpose outlined, NRC for certain topics on Western Europe's climate adaptation.- Central Asian region vital for China's trade routes to Europe.

- Singapore as a key port, handling 26% of global transshipment.

- Ukraine considers EU association and faces pressure from Russia regarding Eurasian customs union.

- Non-aligned countries like Brazil, India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia engaged in transactional geopolitics, trade patterns, and arms imports.

- Japan seeks alliances in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and contemplates remilitarization tied to Eurasian economic partnerships.

- Georgia's EU alignment efforts, Russian soft power, and economic challenges are noted.

- US evolving alliances due to China’s and Russia's actions, focusing on Eurasian heartland containment and tech cooperation.

- China's movement towards economic self-reliance via Belt and Road Initiative and decreasing Western trade reliance.

- Taiwan's substantial role in global semiconductor production at 60%.

- A searchable dashboard provides data on 193 countries’ climate targets and historical emissions.

- Legally binding emissions reductions (NDCs) require updates by 2025 to ideally limit temperature rise to 1.5C.

- Major emitters include China, the US, India, Russia, and Indonesia, with varying climate goals.

- US aims for 50-52% emissions reduction by 2030 from 2005 levels.

- India targets 45% emissions intensity cut by 2030, allowing absolute emissions growth.

- Global greenhouse gas emissions increased from ~47bn in 2015 to 57.4bn metric tonnes in 2022.

- UN climate chief urges stronger actions and delivery proofs.

- COP28 dedicates a loss and damage fund for nations harmed by historical emissions.

- Effectiveness and operational concerns for the loss and damage fund among environmental groups.

- EU's COP28 goals include tripling renewable capacity, phasing out fossil fuels, and stopping new coal plants.

- EU and UK seek funding, including China, for climate damage but face differing positions on liability.

- UK climate targets mirror EU's despite Brexit, but also pursues oil and gas licenses.

- Developing countries demand more climate finance, citing "common but differentiated responsibilities."

- South Africa received a US$8.5 billion deal for coal-to-renewable energy shift.

- Brazil leads in carbon credit market negotiations.

- India’s coal phase-down inclusion proposal vetoed by Saudi Arabia and oil producers.

- Singapore upgrades UNFCCC commitments and offers Climate Action Package to developing nations.

- Singapore involved in formulating Paris Agreement Article 6 on international carbon market.

- Growth in voluntary carbon markets with certifications from Gold Standard, Verra, and Climate Action Reserve.

- Public-private partnerships stressing on disaster-resilient ASEAN communities, government and stakeholder roles.

- Hong Kong’s green financial instruments, including a HK$100 billion green bond initiative.

- Asia-Pacific's strong sustainable bond market with $142 billion issuance in 2022.

- Britain, Colombia, Spain, Germany, and the EU are active in green sovereign bonds financing.

- Questions regarding green bonds' standards and review processes are raised.

- Biden administration doubles BRIC's budget to $2.3 billion for climate risk reduction.

- Indonesian budget focuses on fossil fuel industries with ambiguous renewable energy support.

- EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities labels nuclear energy and natural gas as 'green' under conditions.

- Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are countries’ pledges under the UNFCCC for climate adaptation and emissions reduction.

- Paris Agreement (2015) targets global warming limits, emissions reduction, and regular national pledge updates.

- Global Stocktake at COP28 reviews collective climate action post-Paris Agreement.

- Singapore commits substantial funds to face rising sea levels and establishes a coastal protection fund.

- Developing countries face annual adaptation costs ranging $140 billion to $300 billion by 2030.

- UNEP estimates global investment in adaptation at $46 billion, far below needed $140 billion to $300 billion.

- Singapore updates climate commitments at COP27 including net-zero by 2050 goal.

- Singapore's partnerships and a three-year Sustainability Action Package for Southeast Asia are launched at COP27.

- Paris Agreement addresses temperature, adaptation, support for developing nations, and technology.

- Strategies against climate impacts are implemented in various regions, such as China's agricultural approach and Maldives' defense mechanisms.

- Military organizations consider climate change a security threat prompting clean technology adoption.

- Japan aims to bolster national security by increasing defense budget and capabilities by 2027.

- Global adaptation financing gap widens with increased requirements but decreased flows due to conflicts and post-pandemic recovery.

- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) introduces IF-CAP for funding climate-resilient infrastructure.

- The V20 group pays higher interest rates for loans due to climate risks.

- British army utilizes solar farms for powering military bases.

- Britain argues for more support for developing nations in relation to climate adaptation financing.

- Discussions on prioritizing climate finance and the necessity of investments in climate resilience.

- Increasing focus on green infrastructure projects with emerging opportunities for profit and investment.

- Calls for international aid and climate finance sharing among affluent nations.

- Impacts of climate change on Asian food security and regional strategies to manage risks.

- HSBC’s Climate Solutions Partnership commits US$100 million to support Paris Agreement goals.

- China unveils strategy to become "climate-resilant" by 2035.

- Campaigns such as "Race to resilience" aim to strengthen vulnerable communities.

- Data insufficiency hampers proper adaptation funding allocation.

- In 2019, $79.6 billion in climate finance mobilized, with $20.1 billion for adaptation.

- COP26 delegates demand increased climate finance allocation for adaptation.

- Insurance Development Forum to create a risk modeling platform for vulnerable nations.

- Private sector interest in climate initiatives is rising.

- Asia Pacific’s critical role in global climate efforts is emphasized due to population, emissions, and disasters.

- ADB plans to lend US$100 billion over ten years for climate change mitigation.

- Sharm El-Sheikh Adaptation Agenda seeks $300 billion annually by 2030 to improve 4 billion lives.

- Leaders globally view poverty reduction and environmental protection as intersecting objectives.

- Discussions on the balance between climate finance and basic human capital investment are ongoing.

- Africa needs substantial renewable energy investment to meet future energy demands.

- The urgency of climate adaptation investment is highlighted, with private investors gaining interest in resilience-focused funds.- Chancellor Merkel promised quick aid and focus on climate policy after floods caused over 180 deaths in western Germany.

- The article discusses the need for new disaster risk assessment methods and climate change adaptation.

- Climate change has led to extreme weather in Western Europe, affecting food, energy, trade, and adaptation.

- Climate migration is causing Asians and Africans to move to urban areas, showing adaptation in Western Europe.

- NRC queries focus on shifting international defense expenditures and the impact of rising emissions on defense.

- The impact of emissions on defense includes Pentagon and NATO prioritizing climate change, military emissions opacity, and armies' carbon neutrality efforts.

- NRC signals gaps in addressing climate resilience's geostrategic aspect.

- Pacific island states' security deals with China hint at geostrategic shifts in the Pacific.

- Climate security ties between the Mediterranean, Europe, and Africa are discussed with future implications.

- The text does not cover "Cross-regional climate security interdependencies."

- Developed countries provided US$79.6 billion in climate finance in 2019; adaptation finance was only US$20.1 billion (OECD).

- The UN Environment Programme forecasts higher adaptation costs in developing countries.

- The article omits defense budgets but addresses inadequate funding for climate adaptation.

- The significance of adaptation costs and the funding deficit is highlighted.

- China announces a strategy for a "climate-resilient society" by 2035.

- The Arctic's climate change effects are tied to resilience strategies.

- The text details resistance to pro-climate policies and green policy challenges in developing nations.

- Over half of surveyed U.S. military sites suffer from climate issues.

- The EAEU seeks to diminish reliance on the US dollar and euro.

- China reassesses its EAEU ties due to Western sanctions and "secondary sanctions" risks.

- US-China trade frictions push China towards self-sufficiency.

- Sanctions alter China's EAEU relations and its Belt and Road Initiative.

- US, Australia, and Japan collaborate on Indo-Pacific disaster response.

- Russia and China challenge US dominance; China's BRI counters American influence.

- EU faces Chinese rebuffs; EU military aid to Ukraine totals ~€700 billion.

- Biden plans to counter Eurasian bloc and boost US defense spending.

- The text doesn't address the EAEU's climate policy impact on the US.

- EAEU's formation is part of US's response to the Eurasian bloc.

- Non-aligned countries take a transactional approach with US, China, Russia.

- President Macron stresses European defense sovereignty and decreased US role.

- Macron calls for European military/technological independence and Russian dialogue.

- Macron points out the West's failed global liberal order and challenges from China and Russia.

- The necessity for Western protection amid geopolitical changes and global influence shifts is underscored.

- Article is relevant to Eurasian bloc and US strategic adaptation but does not mention the trade bloc explicitly.

- No content on trade blocs' influence on US climate strategies (NRC).

- EAEU's actions could affect US resource scarcity.

- US-China trade reliance, Global South vulnerability, and cooperation needs are discussed.

- America invests in Africa for mineral sourcing against resource scarcity.

- Hong Kong prepares for extreme weather in 2023; policy details lacking (NRC).

- China lays out a 2035 climate-resilient strategy.

- Singapore commits to net-zero by 2050 and clean energy by 2035.

- Bangladesh's cyclone adaptation is successful.

- The need for increased climate adaptation investment is discussed.

- Paris Agreement emphasizes climate adaptation and resilience.

- G7 to stop funding carbon-heavy coal projects by year-end.

- New technologies explored for security and Singapore's geothermal potential.

- Environmental changes impact the Bajau Laut community in Malaysia.

- The article connects national security, climate change, and economic policies.

- Western defense ministries recognize climate change as a security risk.

- Conflicts in Lake Chad/Sahel show climate and security interplay.

- Singapore halts new data centers over resource usage, indicating resource strategy.

- Competition for critical minerals and supply chain security concerns are examined.

- Hong Kong considers emergency plans for COVID infection surge during Lunar New Year, yet no "scenario planning techniques" for SCDF discussed (NRC).

- Scenario planning for 2050 includes energy shifts; Islamic fundamentalism impact on Western society is a factor.

- Business tools like CRM enhance performance but better customer insight is sought; no migration forecast detailed (NRC).

- ECMWF focuses on operations but does not forecast migration flows (NRC).

- UK's population to hit 72 million by 2050, Germany to decrease to 71 million.

- Chinese tech prefers dual-class IPOs; Hong Kong topped 2019 IPOs with HK$314.2 billion raised.

- AI drives fintech; predictions for growth in investment.

- PPPs need balance for success, related to resource competition.

- Thwaites Glacier's collapse would raise sea levels, calling for adaptation efforts.

- Singapore's Green Plan 2030 includes coastal protection.

- Singapore, aiming for net-zero by 2050, pledges regional sustainability support at COP27.

- Pakistan's flood measures underscore climate inequality.

- Singapore targets net-zero by 2050 and a reduction to 60 million tonnes of emissions.

- DHL tests eco-friendly delivery in Germany, suggesting potential climate action for Singapore.

- Singapore improves water absorption and adopts natural defense against flooding.

- Asia has a $25 billion finance gap for climate resilience; Singapore is climate-vulnerable.

- Singapore's high COVID-19 vaccination rates show adaptability.

- The city's commitment to climate action follows the severity of global warming threats.

- The article discusses the significance of land in resource scarcity and urban challenges.

- Higher land prices correlate with city success.

- Housing affordability impacted by land-use policies, suggesting a land-value tax to mitigate issues.

- The article lacks direct strategies for resource scarcity and climate resilience geopolitics (NRC).

- Singapore's Prime Minister stresses collaboration on climate change and food security.

- Focus on supply chain resilience, clean energy, and pandemic preparedness mentioned.

- The ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area upgrade and Australia's renewable experience are discussed.

- Over 2 billion lack safe drinking water; 4 billion face monthly severe water scarcity.

- The Economist Group commits to net-zero by 2045, encouraging climate tech and sustainability.

- Corporate legal departments manage geopolitical, AI, and global tensions (related to emissions regulation).

- Singapore explores nuclear and geothermal for net-zero by 2050 and cleaner energy systems in 2023.

- Hong Kong's response to weather with AI and big data is related to climate change.

- Increases in military and space spending noted (related to emissions regulation).

- Singapore and New Zealand partner on sustainable aviation and green technologies.

- COP26's "race to resilience" upholds adaptation funding; Global Risk Modelling Alliance launched.

- Slow emissions reductions threaten 1.5°C temp limit; Singapore's climate commitment noted.

- Bangladesh's climate adaption success with defenses and farming innovations highlighted.

- Developed nations are urged to support adaptation in less developed countries.

- China targets becoming a climate-resilient society by 2035.

- COP28 UAE Declaration commits US$1 billion for climate-resilient health systems.

- Singapore collaborates on climate change through MOU with Rwanda.

- Adaptation finance shortfall noted; pledges seen as symbolic and limited.

- Scientific research needed for quantifying climate-caused losses.

- The urgency of aid for developing countries most affected by climate change emphasized.

- The potential loss and damage fund at COP28 garners mixed reactions.

- Near-term policy impact on temperatures is limited; cutting CO2 could have quick effects.

- President Biden's climate summit to drive US and global emissions reduction efforts.

- Japan's strategic partnerships and defense in China's shadow discussed.

- The rise in global defense spending is linked to geopolitical competition.

- Global military spending exceeded $1.9 trillion in 2019 (SIPRI).

- The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on future military budgets considered.

- Climate-induced migration yields positive outcomes despite larger displacement concerns.

- The World Bank expects significant internal migration due to climate change by 2050.

- An Giang University studies climate-resilient rice farming practices.

- Sharm El-Sheikh's Adaptation Agenda targets a $300 billion/year investment by 2030.

- Developed countries vow to double adaptation funds to $40 billion/year by 2025.

- Climate change and urbanization affect migration patterns and adaption strategies.

- Biden's plan involves reindustrialization and carbon cuts, with substantial monetary and policy investments.

- China plans a national carbon market and reassesses energy policy in light of global pressures.

- The Mediterranean's historical connectivity is explored; no data on "emissions caps" and "national security" (NRC).

- Ukraine needs to adapt military strategy due to resource shortages.

- Ukraine's long-term security involves economic reform and Western alliances.

- Sanctions impact Russia's GDP growth and exports, forcing it to pivot resources.

- Russia struggles with high-tech shortages and living standards amid sanctions.

- Eurasian economic integration and rivalry between GEP and BRI is discussed.

- Russia's GEP shows less progress compared to China’s global-scale BRI, highlighting power dissimilarity.